With Minds of Their Own

By Laurence I. Barrett

Iowans of both parties who say they will participate in next month's caucuses are far more eager than voters nationwide to move the U.S. in a new direction. In a survey for TIME by Yankelovich Clancy Shulman,* 50% of Iowa Republicans say they would like the next President to "follow different policies" from the Reagan Administration's, compared with 39% who would stay on the same course. Nationally, Republican voters prefer the status quo over change by 58% to 32%. Iowa Democrats also display a marked contrast to voters nationwide: in Iowa, 93% favor a change from the Reagan era, against 77% nationally.

Sharp disparities also exist between Iowa and the rest of the U.S. on specific critical issues. In appraising economic conditions, Iowans are more dour than voters elsewhere. In Iowa, 45% of Republicans judge the economy "fairly bad or very bad," vs. 38% of G.O.P. voters nationwide. Democrats are even more doubtful about the economy: 73% of the Iowans are downbeat, vs. 60% of Democrats at large. Most Iowans, like Americans generally, support increased federal spending on education, care for the elderly, cleanup of the environment and help for the homeless. Similarly, majorities in both parties say they are willing to pay higher taxes to finance bigger social programs. % But despite their reputation for liberal views, Iowans are less likely to support big-buck programs. Among Democrats, for instance, 73% in Iowa favor larger Government subsidies for education; nationally, the figure is 81%.

Iowans are even less enthusiastic than voters elsewhere about federal assistance to farmers, despite the state's agricultural base. Some 55% of Republicans at large favor increased aid, vs. 48% in Iowa. Among Democrats, support for an increase drops from 72% nationwide to 58% in Iowa. The state's long, intimate experience with federal programs that fail

to solve the basic farm dilemma may account for the difference.

Iowans are far more dovish on defense and foreign policy. Asked if military appropriations should be increased, decreased or kept the same, Republicans nationally divide 30% for higher spending, 23% for less and 45% for no change. But in Iowa, only 19% of Republicans favor more defense, and 36% want less. Democrats nationwide split roughly by thirds on the same question; in Iowa, half the Democrats support a cut in Pentagon spending, and only 15% prefer an increase. Asked if they favor or oppose U.S. aid to the contras in Nicaragua, Republicans nationally support the program, 54% to 32%; Iowa Republicans divide narrowly against it, 42% to 40%. While Democrats in general oppose contra assistance by 2 to 1, the ratio in Iowa is 5 to 1.

Just as many of Reagan's policies are unpopular in Iowa, overall approval of the President's performance also scrapes bottom in the state. That accounts, at least partly, for the poor standing of Vice President George Bush among voters likely to attend Iowa's G.O.P. caucuses. The clear front runner nationally among Republican voters, Bush trails Bob Dole by 10 points in Iowa.

The Reagan connection, however, can have other ripples. Among Republican voters across the nation, Bush wins support from 49%, an increase of 9 points since TIME's December poll, while Dole rises 4 points, to 24%. Bush appears to have benefited from the Reagan-Gorbachev summit and the arms-control treaty. Dole quickly dropped his oft-stated qualms about the nuclear accord, at least partly because of pressure from his Iowa supporters.

Polls for months have indicated that Bush and Dole have the Republican race to themselves, but the TIME survey shows that voter sentiment is hardly set in concrete. When asked if they felt certain that they would stick with their present first choice, just 29% of Republican voters nationwide said yes. Among ( Iowans, the figure was 34%. With two-thirds of Iowa Republicans harboring some doubt, the campaign's final three weeks should be as suspenseful as usual.

The Democratic contest is more volatile, and not merely because 69% nationally feel they might change choices. Gary Hart's lead is too puny to make him a strong front runner, given his liabilities. Both nationally and in Iowa, 40% of Democratic voters say they have a "generally unfavorable" impression of Hart. A negative rating that high is crippling. Jesse Jackson, who also has large negatives (41% nationally, 37% in Iowa), found that out last month when Hart's return to the contest dumped him from first place. In this fast-forward atmosphere, Paul Simon is prospering, at least for the moment, while Michael Dukakis is losing traction. Nationally, Simon rose from fourth place in December (7%) to third place this month (13%), changing places with Dukakis (from 14% down to 11%).

Those changes are marginal, but in Iowa, Simon seems now to have a chance to move ahead. Among Democrats who say they will attend caucuses, he is second. However, when the sample is narrowed further to 213 Democrats who have attended a caucus in the past, Simon rises to the top. He is the favorite of 26% in this group, with Hart second (18%), Dukakis third (17%) and Richard Gephardt fourth (14%). So the Democrats, even more than the Republicans, will be puzzling the question of which partisans in this independent-minded state might actually turn out on caucus night to start their favorite on the road to the White House.

FOOTNOTE: *Taken by telephone Jan. 3-7. Nationwide, 1,804 adults were interviewed, including 571 likely Democratic voters and 424 likely Republican voters. A separate Iowa survey of 1,783 adults included 497 likely Democratic caucus participants and 394 likely Republican attendees. All findings were based on likely voters and likely caucus participants. Potential sampling errors are shown in charts.

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CAPTION: DEMOCRATS

DESCRIPTION: Strength of Democratic candidates among United States voters and Iowa voters.

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CAPTION: REPUBLICANS

DESCRIPTION: Strength of Republican candidates among United States voters and Iowa voters.