Monday, Aug. 08, 1988

The Great G.O.P. Veepstakes Scoreboard

By Jacob V. Lamar

The publicity barrage choreographed last week by George Bush's strategists was designed to portray his Veep-selection process as dignified and judicious. Much to their satisfaction, that is precisely what front-page stories soon reported: discreet phone calls to 20 candidates, quiet background checks by Washington Lawyer Robert Kimmitt, and no public tryouts. "George Bush knows all these people well," said Campaign Manager Lee Atwater. "We don't have to run a political Gong Show." But the process may soon get bumpy; Bush tends to waffle when faced with conflicting advice because, as an aide puts it, "he hates to disappoint anybody, especially his friends." Herewith, scouting reports on the leading contenders, roughly in the order of their standings:

GEORGE DEUKMEJIAN, 60

When Dukakis bid for Texas by choosing Bentsen, it strengthened the electoral rationale for Bush to target California by choosing its Governor. Deukmejian publicly ruled himself out because his selection would hand the statehouse to the Dems, but Bush aides say Deukmejian would accept if asked. Weaknesses: he is dull as Death Valley, and he (like Dukakis) favored unpopular tax increases to cover his state's big deficit.

JACK KEMP, 53

The New York Congressman also carries some Western clout as a native Californian and former San Diego quarterback. He appeals to G.O.P. right- wingers and supply-side purists and has a gritty optimism that could attract blue-collar Reagan Democrats. But he has already proved himself an uninspiring campaigner in the primaries.

ALAN SIMPSON, 56

If Bush could choose based simply on his own likes, he would tap his friend the Waspy and witty Wyoming Senator. Extremely popular and partisan, he would be an effective attack dog. Though ardently conservative, his pro-choice abortion stance would ruffle the right. He looks like Ichabod Crane, and his tart tongue could get him in trouble. Worse, his state has only three electoral votes.

ELIZABETH, 52, AND ROBERT DOLE, 65

The Kansas Senator wants the job, but he makes jokes about his wife's waiting by the phone. He would highlight the ticket's experience; she could help close the gender gap. Picking her would be a daring gamble that could change the entire game, but her only real experience is a spotty tenure as Transportation Secretary. Picking him would be far safer, but it would allow Democrats to show their footage of him snarling nasty things about Bush.

PETE DOMENICI, 56

The New Mexico Senator is a respected lawmaker who could counter Bentsen in the Southwest. As a Catholic and Italian American, he could help in the bid for urban ethnics. "We'd love to have a guy with a vowel at the end of his name," says one Bush aide. But he is not a true Reaganaut: as Budget % Committee chairman, he struggled with the Administration, urging tax and budget prudence.

LAMAR ALEXANDER, 48

The former Tennessee Governor is the newest hot prospect. Like Dukakis, he has a reputation as a competent state executive. He kept Tennessee's economy healthy during a downturn, and he is popular with black voters. He could cement Bush's base in the South and bring clout on the education issue. But Tennessee has only eleven electoral votes, and Alexander enjoys little national recognition.

NANCY KASSEBAUM, 56

If Bush continues to slip, he may gamble on Kansas' other Senator as a woman with enough respect and savvy to make previous polls meaningless. Her prochoice stance on abortion and moderate, sensible views on foreign policy would alienate some on the right. A more serious drawback: she has asked not to be considered, and may have irrevocably taken herself out of the running.

JAMES THOMPSON, 52

The Illinois Governor could help secure an all important swing state. He was a tough corruption fighter when he was a federal prosecutor. But like Deukmejian, he is a colorless campaigner and has proposed raising taxes.

THE REST OF THE FIELD includes Missouri Senator John Danforth, who is upright and thoughtful but could make the ticket too Ivy League Waspy; Dick Thornburgh, former Pennsylvania Governor and designated Attorney General, who might bring in Pennsylvania but would alienate ardent antiabortionists; National Security Adviser Colin Powell, a black who would represent a bold choice but is not yet being seriously considered; and Colorado Senator William Armstrong, who would reassure conservatives but deliver few electoral votes.

With reporting by David Beckwith/Washington