Burma A Regime on the Ropes

As Burma entered its third consecutive week of explosive protest, the revolt seemed on the verge of achieving its aim. Antigovernment forces thronged the streets day after day last week, giddy with the scent of victory down the road. By midweek the protests had reached an almost shattering pitch as 1 million or more people demonstrated in Rangoon. Newly appointed President Maung Maung was stalling for time, but his government was forced into full retreat. Anarchy suddenly appeared as menacing a possibility as a power grab by the military.

By week's end a strike had all but shut down the country. The capital's Insein Prison was burned -- set aflame by inmates according to one account or, according to another, ignited by gunfire as guards opened up on prisoners. A British Broadcasting Corp. story claimed that as many as 1,000 inmates died; state-run Radio Rangoon at one point asserted that the same number had escaped. Government offices were deserted, some of them ransacked.

The unrest deepened despite a series of government measures designed to quell the discontent. The regime withdrew troops from Rangoon and lifted martial law, which had been decreed on Aug. 3 by Maung Maung's predecessor, Sein Lwin. Almost 1,700 people imprisoned during Sein Lwin's 17-day rule were freed, including Aung Gyi, the former brigadier general who is now Burma's foremost dissident. The President announced that on Sept. 12 the Burma Socialist Program Party would meet to consider a proposal for a national referendum on a multiparty system. Maung Maung, Burma's first civilian leader since a military coup installed Strongman Ne Win in 1962, promised he would resign if the party votes against the proposal.

Nonetheless, at week's end few observers were giving the Maung Maung regime much of a chance to survive. Some surmised that Maung Maung was merely holding on to protect Ne Win, who led the country until July 23, and was Maung Maung's longtime patron. Rumor had it that Ne Win was seeking a promise of asylum in Western Europe.

Even if Ne Win leaves, or if the party decides to open up the political arena, the future looks increasingly uncertain. After 26 years of dictatorial rule, Burma has no experienced politicians or political organization outside the ruling party. So speculation about the future centers on the army and a few dissidents -- with the military's leanings still unclear. Among the dissidents mentioned as potential leaders: Aung Gyi and Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of Aung San, the late hero of the Burmese independence struggle in the 1940s. There was no indication, though, that anyone was prepared to form a new government.