The Great Debate Scorecard

By WALTER SHAPIRO

All this week George Bush and Michael Dukakis are preparing intensely for Sunday night's kickoff debate. But the briefing books will soon be put aside so that they can turn their full attention to one of democracy's most important tests: delivering the "spontaneous" one-liners that could swing the election. At Bush headquarters, Roger Ailes is probably going over the script now. "Take it from the top, George. You turn to Dukakis and say, 'Governor, you call yourself a patriot, but I bet you don't even know the fourth verse of our national anthem.' " The sessions in the Dukakis camp are no doubt equally substantive. "Mike, this isn't public TV. You've got to smile. Now try it again: 'Let me help you with that, George Herbert Walker . . .' "

Compared with the sound-bite sparring on the nightly news, the 90-minute Wake Forest wordfest may seem like an advanced policy seminar. But the rigid format allows both men to get away with programmed answers and pretested prose. How can you get a sense of the real candidates lurking behind the campaign consultants? Ignore the mock theatrics and instead focus on those unscripted moments that provide a glimpse of how the two men think and react. Use this Spontaneity Scorecard to decide who best displays his fitness to be President, not guest host on the Johnny Carson show.

1. Your Script Is Showing. The first half of the debate is apt to be as overchoreographed as a Las Vegas floor show. But as the candidates tire, their game plans will begin to unravel. "The human nature of the candidates means that they can't hold a script in their minds for more than half an hour," explains Communications Professor Kathleen Hall Jamieson, co-author of Presidential Debates. "The problem is that viewers tend to get inattentive at just the point that the debate gets revealing." Award 1 point for each answer that makes sense in the first half-hour, 3 points for all coherent replies after that.

2. Bizarre Is Better. With the debate panel composed entirely of reporters, it will be easy to anticipate most of their earnest questions. Do you really think Dukakis would be unprepared for a query on balancing the budget, or Bush blind-sided by the Iran-contra affair? But despite the practice sessions, one or two out-of-nowhere questions may slip through the rehearsal radar. Both candidates might be flummoxed by a panelist who simply asks them to justify their lifelong aversion to reading novels. You can probably tell when to be alert; neither Bush nor Dukakis is a good enough actor to totally mask that bewildered look of "Huh?" Award 5 points for the best answer to an oddball question.

3. The Close Makes the Man. The two-minute final arguments may seem like the rhetorical equivalent of airplane food, but they do force the candidates to articulate tersely why they want to be President. If Bush can frame a final message without mentioning Ronald Reagan, or Dukakis can create a rationale that does not depend on "competence," he deserves a small boost on the scoreboard. Three points for a compelling closing statement, even if scripted, and 3 bonus points if it responds to issues raised earlier in the evening.

4. The Gift of Gaffe. Nothing frightens the candidates like a debate flub comparable to Jerry Ford's claim that Eastern Europe was not under Moscow's thumb. But it is dangerous to exaggerate the significance of these small slips, especially since both Bush and Dukakis are stronger on factual knowledge than they are on vision. Ignore all the post-debate babble of commentators who like to pounce on gaffes. Turn the tables by giving 2 points to any candidate who catches his own error and offers a graceful correction.

5. The Appearance of Coherence. With no response longer than a network commercial break (two minutes), it will be easy for the candidates to appear in command merely by adopting confident tones in the first and last sentences of their answers. Listen instead to the middle sentences of each answer. It will be particularly telling if Dukakis consistently stumbles in articulating nuclear strategy or if Bush fails to explain what he has been doing for a living these past eight years. Deduct 3 points for every answer that sounds like a Marx Brothers routine.

6. There You Go Again. Some bombastic boasts and irrelevant issues have already worn out their welcome. Bush should be penalized for ever again mentioning the Pledge of Allegiance or implying that a line-item veto could erase a $2 trillion national debt. Every time Dukakis brags that he has balanced ten state budgets, the networks should run a crawl line across the TV + screens pointing out that such fiscal integrity is mandated by state law. Deduct 1 point for each mention of these taboo topics.

7. Ersatz Emotion Commotion. Neither Bush nor Dukakis is known for volcanic temperament, so it is safe to assume that all outbursts are concocted by a drama coach. The problem is that feigned passion plays well on television and is apt to be endlessly repeated on the post-debate newscasts. The solution: if the candidates get mad, the scorecard gets even. Deduct 5 points for each angry response, 10 if the candidate refers to his family.