Israel Is the Intifadeh Losing Steam?

The first phase was remarkable: using stones and strikes, Arab youths managed to befuddle the Israeli army and gain some national pride. But after 20 months of rebellion and bloodshed, Palestinians in the occupied territories are growing tired as they grimly realize that their heady sacrifices have yet to budge the Israelis. Although the intifadeh promises to smolder indefinitely, fewer and fewer Arabs are actively taking part in the violence. The worst outbursts of rage are now directed at other Palestinians, while weary residents are increasingly willing to defy the frequent strike orders that once commanded near total obedience.

Last week, in a test of strength between Palestinian activists and the Israeli army, the underground leadership of the intifadeh banned Gazans from working in Israel for two weeks. The strike was called to protest the army's latest method for controlling troublemakers: a computerized ID card listing any previous criminal charges that all Gaza men aged 16 to 60 must now carry. The army says about 65,000 of the cards have been issued; Palestinians claim to have confiscated and destroyed thousands of them.

Nearly 10% of Gaza's laborers dared to flout the strike order. "Our situation is unbearable," said Mohammed, 51, standing at the heavily guarded crossing into Israel at 6:30 a.m. "We're trapped between the Israelis and the intifadeh." A father of 15, he risked attack by masked strike enforcers to reach the checkpoint. "Either I sneak out to work or my family starves," he complains.

Defiance like Mohammed's is only one crack in the facade of Palestinian unity. In the first 17 months of the uprising, nearly 50 Arabs were shot, beaten or hacked to death by fellow Arabs for collaborating with the Israelis; since May, that number has doubled. In fact, many are believed to have been gunned down to settle private accounts and labeled collaborators posthumously. Nonetheless, many Palestinians are appalled by the brutality, prompting an appeal in the latest leaflet from the uprising "not to eliminate collaborators without a decision by the leadership, and not before he is given a chance to repent."

While the Palestinians despair, the Israelis are learning to live with and even ignore the "disturbances." As their sense of urgency wanes, so does the incentive to find a solution. Israel's grip on the territories may ultimately prove untenable, but in the short run, it is the Palestinians who are nearing the limits of endurance. That is precisely what worries Arab extremists, who contend that leaves but one option: to uncache their weapons and return to the front pages in the worst possible way.