Giving The

By Laurence I. Barrett

Sober analysts and perhaps Wall Street investors may be disturbed by Washington's status quo politics, but most Americans remain in a cautious, conservative mood. They seem even more detached than usual from combat in the nation's capital and content with George Bush's bland stewardship. A TIME/CNN poll last week demonstrated that Bush and the Republican Party have prospered dramatically in this atmosphere.

The survey, conducted by Yankelovich Clancy Shulman, found that 75% of those questioned approve of Bush's performance in office -- a new high for the President, and a better mark by far than Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford or Richard Nixon received at this stage of their terms. Bush may also find that his popularity has coattails: when asked with which party they identify, just as many people called themselves Republicans (32%) as Democrats. In Yankelovich surveys earlier this year, Democrats averaged a six- point edge. By 39% to 29%, the G.O.P. is seen as better able than the Democrats to handle national problems.

But these high grades for the President do not translate into wild enthusiasm for his Administration. Just 27% said they approve of Bush's performance "strongly," and half approve "only somewhat." While 49% credit Bush with taking charge on major issues, 40% think he merely talks about them. Two-thirds think Bush has "pretty much followed" Ronald Reagan's path, vs. one-quarter who believe he has "brought real change." The desire for new approaches found by opinion surveys last year seems to have receded.

Bush benefits from the small appetite for rapid change. More than 60% say things are going well in the country, and 90% say things are going well in their personal affairs. Yet the Government gets scant credit for this: 60% say they trust Washington "only some of the time." Asked to rate the Federal Government today vs. ten years ago, a majority say Washington is less concerned about people like themselves, that there is less honesty in Government and that the U.S. is less respected throughout the world.

Optimism about the country's future is weak in crucial areas, such as the economy. However, as relations with the Soviets have improved, 52% of the public is now very optimistic about prospects for peace. The absence of fear of war boosts Bush's standing. Criticism that he is too cautious to respond to Moscow's olive-branch overtures registers with few Americans.

Advocates of more vigorous Government, including Democratic congressional leaders, have failed so far to exploit the latent anxieties about the economy. Ambivalence reigns on the chronically contentious issue of taxes: 59% are opposed to the general proposition of raising taxes to deal with the country's problems. Yet when asked if they would pay more taxes to achieve specific goals such as improving schools or fighting drugs, the respondents answered yes on each. Why the distinction? Because of deep skepticism about performance. By a resounding 73% to 19%, Americans believe Washington delivers "less value for the taxes you pay" than it did ten years ago.

That skepticism drives the lack of interest in expanding the federal role. Thom Serafin, a Chicago Democratic consultant, says that Washington "is the last place to turn to for solutions." Because the national Democrats are identified with Big Government, their standing suffers. Battered by scandals and controversy over a pay raise, Congress has plummeted in prestige since the beginning of the year. While Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill attempt to sound alarms about fundamental problems, they have found neither the message nor the messenger to make an opposition case effectively.

Is there one person regarded as the Democrats' national leader? No, said 74% of Americans in last week's poll. When asked to choose the "national leader" among six prominent Democrats, just 14% selected Jesse Jackson; 13%, Mario Cuomo; 10%, Michael Dukakis. That last year's presidential candidate fares so poorly and that no single personality commands wide recognition underscore the Democrats' plight. They lack, among other things, what insiders call a "defining issue." The public worries about mediocre schools and the illicit drug trade but does not hold Bush responsible. His rhetoric on those subjects seems to have absolved him.

The President's program to rescue the savings and loan industry will be expensive to taxpayers into the next century, but interest in that issue has evaporated. Says Mississippi legislator Charles Capps: "I'm on the board of three banks, and I don't hear a word about the S&L bailouts." Bush's critics pour out admonitions about the national debt, say, or the trade deficit, but they fail to penetrate general complacency. Such abstract issues are like cotton candy, says Democratic pollster Peter Hart: "You can taste it, but you can't chew it."

Some Democrats take solace in the results of special House elections this year. By the time the eighth contest is held in November, the Democrats are almost certain to have gained one seat. But the Democrats who have won so far campaigned as conservatives.

This climate gives Bush considerable political capital on which to trade. As Republican pollster Richard Wirthlin points out, "He has running room now that few Presidents have enjoyed during the last 30 years." Still, Bush has chosen to mark time, hoarding his popularity rather than investing it in innovation, however cautiously. To move off center, the polls show, might be risky at the moment. Yet political support has a way of disintegrating when people get bored with bromides or when crises born of inertia remind voters about Government's purpose.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE

CREDIT: TIME Chart by Cynthia Davis.

CAPTION: Would you be willing to pay higher taxes if the money were used for: