Millennial Megababble

By Stefan Kanfer

MEGATRENDS 2000 by John Naisbitt and Patricia Aburdene

Morrow; 384 pages; $21.95

As the first millennium approached, a French monk named Markulf sounded a warning: "Mundi terminum ruinis crescentibus appropinquantem indicia certa manifestant" -- Clear signs announce the end of the world; the ruins multiply. The theologian Thietmar of Merseburg, on the other hand, viewed the chalice as half full: "The thousandth year since the salvific birth," he thought, was surely the time of "a radiant dawn . . . over the world."

The second millennium nears, and this time it is the secular prophets who disagree. Apocalyptists like Paul Ehrlich and the Club of Rome foresee an overpopulated globe, flooded with garbage and asphyxiated by fluorocarbons. The oracles of optimism predict salvation by technology on a planet of plenty.

Foremost of the 21st century ecstatics are John Naisbitt and Patricia Aburdene, a husband-and-wife team. His previous best seller, Megatrends, was a smooth amalgam of insight, conjecture and jargon. In the '80s, he predicted, we would move from "Industrial Society to Information Society, from National Economy to World Economy, from Hierarchies to Networking, from Either/Or to Multiple Option." Naisbitt scored some palpable hits -- and made some egregious errors. But readers were less interested in results than in the relentlessly affirmative message. The book sold 8 million copies in 28 languages and stayed on U.S. best-seller lists from 1982 to 1984.

It does not take a wizard to see that Megatrends 2000 is destined for the same course. There have been three printings before publication, and the authors' message is still relentlessly upbeat. "We are often asked," they write, " . . . why we do not describe more of the problems facing humankind." The answer is revealing: "We admire the activists whose life's work is to right the world's wrongs. Our mission is a different one." Translation: in difficult times there are too many candidates for the role of Cassandra. The part of cheerleader is just as lucrative, and easier to play.

Naisbitt and Aburdene begin with a rallying cry beloved by high school valedictorians: "We stand at the dawn of a new era." The rest of the work rarely breaks that tone of adolescent confidence. No need to be concerned about the imbalance of trade, recession or unemployment. "There will be virtually no limits to growth . . . Everything that comes out of the ground will be in oversupply for the balance of this century and probably much longer." So much for shortages of oil, tulips or gophers.

Throughout the '80s, the moral backslide has been a national obsession. But a panacea is at hand. The New Age will save the world: "We are rediscovering the emotional side of ourselves. Both channeling and speaking in tongues assert the validity of the irrational." And the profitability. With spreadsheet sincerity, the authors report that "theology aside, fundamentalists and New Agers concur as consumers. Books, music, and videotapes are big sellers for both . . . It seems there is no end to this market."

For Naisbitt and Aburdene, market is always the operative word. As proof of a resurgence in the arts, they report that "during the Renoir show at the Boston Museum of Fine Arts, the museum shop sold $8.3 million worth of T shirts, sweat shirts, exhibition catalogs, posters, and appointment calendars. At $2 apiece Renoir shopping bags grossed $100,000." There are no figures on how many visitors actually looked at the paintings.

Stateside, the authors can sometimes be plausible; once across the ocean, they veer directly into farce. The fashionable will soon be ordering their wardrobes in the Cyrillic alphabet: "Yummies -- young, upwardly mobile Marxists -- are emerging in the U.S.S.R. and Eastern Europe, imitating the clothes and music tastes of yuppies." As for international terrorism, travelers to the Middle East can loosen their seat belts: "Developing countries that succeed in preserving their cultures remain stronger and find it more difficult to justify striking out against the West." This intelligence should be a surprise to the Great Satan.

Not every passage is eupeptic or naive. Naisbitt and Aburdene are right to question the findings of the pessimists: even scientists disagree about the consequences of the greenhouse effect. And the authors acknowledge, however briefly, the social plagues of crime, AIDS and substance abuse. But these are mere blemishes in their grand design. "Our perspective," they declare, "our market niche in the vast world of information, is to highlight some of the positive."

Alas, that highlight only brightens the route to the best-seller list. The path to the 21st century is deeper and far more tortuous than a market niche. A new era involves, among other things, hazardous negotiations, forbearance, sacrifices and painstaking research. These have little importance in this megababble, largely dedicated to validating the irrational. It is fueled by the notion that if readers shout good news often enough and loud enough, the resulting hot air will cause the whole world to rise.