Why The Western Powers Are Right to Tread Carefully

By Lisa Beyer

One could not help feeling a twinge of pity as Lithuanian Prime Minister Kazimiera Prunskiene and her entourage trudged through Oslo looking for help last week. The Norwegians offered their guests sympathy and goodwill, but oil and gas were another matter. Statoil, Norway's state-owned oil company, said sure, it would sell to Lithuania -- but for U.S. dollars, of which Lithuania has very few.

The Lithuanians have got little more than moral support elsewhere, since the Western powers are not eager to punish Moscow for squeezing Vilnius. With the warming of East-West relations at stake, they reason, the fate of a tiny republic and its 3.7 million people -- 1.3% of the Soviet population -- does not merit a fight, unless Moscow turns truly nasty. "Everybody feels for the Lithuanians," says a senior NATO diplomat, "but everybody is keeping an eye on the bigger picture."

In responding to the Soviet blockade, the West has three options:

RESCUE LITHUANIA

The most spectacular bailout would be a repeat of the Berlin airlift launched by the U.S., Britain and France when the Soviets cut off supplies to the city's western sectors in 1948. But as Paul Craig Roberts, professor of political economy at Georgetown University, notes, "It's a crackpot idea." West Berlin, then as now, was under the control of the three Allies and could be reached through an air corridor to which they had legal access. Getting to Lithuania, whether by plane, train, truck or ship, would mean violating the Soviet border -- as Moscow draws it anyway. "That's a good way to start a war," says Roberts.

In the unlikely event that the Soviets were to promise not to seize incoming goods, Vilnius still would not have the hard currency to pay for them. Barter deals are unlikely since Lithuania does not produce much that the West would want. The republic's agricultural goods do not meet Western standards because of excessive use of pesticides. Most of its other potential exports, such as TV sets and tractor parts, are also of inferior quality.

PUNISH MOSCOW

Here, there is more room to wiggle. Tougher measures would include shelving arms-control negotiations, reducing Soviet access to high-technology goods and scaling back diplomatic contacts. For dramatic effect, the U.S. could cancel the Bush-Gorbachev summit scheduled for May 30.

But last week Washington, to which the European powers are looking to calibrate their own reactions, confined the punitive steps it threatened against Moscow to commercial matters. Among the deals under negotiation that might be suspended are a trade agreement that would grant the Soviets most- favored-nation status, a maritime transport pact, and an investment treaty. The U.S. and its allies could also block Moscow's entry into the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the International Monetary Fund and other international bodies, and restrict Soviet access to funds from the nascent European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, a consortium of 42 nations.

DO NOTHING

As long as Moscow does not resort to a military assault, the West could continue to appeal for peace but otherwise let Gorbachev resolve the Lithuanian crisis in his own way. Washington is clearly tempted by this option. After consulting with visiting French President Francois Mitterrand in Florida the day after Moscow cut off oil to Lithuania, President Bush emerged saying that his staff still had not confirmed the "exact extent of any Soviet crackdown" and that he could not say when the U.S. "might do something" to retaliate.

Much as the U.S. and its allies would like to see an independent Lithuania, that goal runs a poor second to their desire to remain on friendly terms with Gorbachev. If Lithuania provokes a blast of East-West acrimony, notes a senior British diplomat, "it could plunge us back into the cold war." The process of arms reduction would probably halt, and perhaps reverse. The democratization of Eastern Europe would be imperiled, as would prospects for a smooth unification of the Germanys. A return to superpower tensions would also bolster the influence of conservatives in Moscow and undercut Gorbachev's attempts to remake Soviet society.

The Bush Administration is under no pressure from the American people to get tough. In a TIME/CNN poll, 65% of the respondents said Lithuania's status was "none of our business." A majority (53%) felt Bush should meet with Gorbachev in May even if Moscow uses military force in Lithuania.

The West's passive approach could also persuade the Lithuanians to back down, which is probably essential to a peaceful outcome. To an extent, the Western powers share Moscow's pique at the way Vilnius raced single-mindedly toward independence. Says Ilya Prizel, professor of Soviet studies at Johns Hopkins University: "They dove into the swimming pool without seeing if it held any water." That fancy dive was especially unfortunate given the fact that Gorbachev has made clear that the republic has the right to leave the U.S.S.R. as long as it follows the terms of a new secession law passed last month. Considering the West's reluctance to risk so much for the sake of showing solidarity with a determined Vilnius, Lithuanian officials may want to shop for a compromise rather than a new oil contract.

With reporting by William Mader/London and J.F.O. McAllister/Washington