Fear And Loathing in Israel

By JON D. HULL JERUSALEM

Israeli military officials fear only one thing more than a surprise Iraqi attack: a diplomatic solution to the Persian Gulf crisis that would leave Saddam Hussein and his war machine intact.

Sound coldhearted? Not as Israeli analysts see it. If Iraq dares to attack Israel now, Saddam Hussein will face the devastating wrath of both Israel and the U.S.-led forces massed in the region. But if Saddam survives and U.S. troops eventually depart, the analysts are convinced, Israel will one day have to fight alone against Baghdad. By then, Saddam may also have nuclear weapons at his disposal.

Saddam's threat last week to fire the first shot -- and to target Israel in the bargain -- convinced Jerusalem that a showdown may come in a matter of weeks. In fact, an Israeli intelligence evaluation concluded that war was "highly probable" and warned that Israel would probably be dragged into the conflict.

After Saddam's threat, the Israeli military command -- which is all too aware that Iraqi missiles are only five minutes from Tel Aviv -- quickly put its forces on an even higher state of alert. Said Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir: "We are preparing to forestall the threat, prevent it and if, heaven forbid, he does in fact attack, to retaliate."

Considering that Israel's own military doctrine stresses swift pre-emptive action against any imminent threat, it would seem that Israeli warplanes are long overdue in the skies above Baghdad. But Israel remains under intense pressure from Washington to avoid any action that might offend the Arab alliance deployed against Iraq.

Israeli officials have followed Washington's directives with unprecedented restraint, knowing that any military move against Baghdad on their part would turn Saddam into a hero of the Arab masses, paint Israel as the aggressor and perhaps force several Arab allies now in the U.S. camp over to Saddam's side, or at least to the sidelines. Following a series of war games held by the general staff in an underground command bunker in the central part of the country, Israel's brass concluded that for now, the consequences of an Iraqi attack on Israel would be less severe than the political and military fallout from a first strike on Iraq.

That assessment could quickly change. But in the meantime, Israel remains in a rather unnerving defensive posture. Air defenses along the Jordan Valley have been strengthened with additional batteries of Hawk surface-to-air missiles, and an increased number of Israeli interceptors are kept aloft 24 hours a day.

Israel is also relying on its ability to detect, with the help of U.S. satellites, any Iraqi preparations for a missile launch. Once Baghdad begins placing its missiles on launchers, Israel and the U.S. expect to have five or six hours to coordinate a response before the missiles can be fired. To keep Israel out of the fray, Washington may volunteer to take out the missiles, but Shamir will require some convincing. Says Defense Minister Moshe Arens: "Nobody will do the job for us. We can do it, and we should do it on our own."

Granted, but Israel is gambling nonetheless. Although Arens has boasted that "we are in a position to knock out of the air any Iraqi plane that may be coming our way," his country's air defenses are largely helpless against Iraqi missiles. And even though some Israeli officials believe Saddam may indeed have managed to equip those missiles with primitive chemical warheads -- contrary to Arens' assertion a few weeks ago -- the government still refuses to issue gas masks to the civilian population.

Israeli intelligence concedes that it cannot be absolutely certain of detecting Iraqi missile preparations in advance. As a precaution, civil defense officials are bracing for a worst-case scenario in which 20 to 30 missiles hit the populated coastal region, causing thousands of casualties, before Israel can cripple Saddam's war machine.

Doomsayers prophesy that Jerusalem would respond to Iraqi gas with an A- bomb. In fact, even in this situation, an Israeli nuclear retaliation would be extremely unlikely. Those weapons are reserved for the dark hours when the nation's existence is at stake; despite Saddam's apocalyptic rhetoric, Iraq is militarily incapable of destroying Israel. Moreover, Israeli generals are confident that their conventional weapons can both paralyze Baghdad and stop dead any Iraq troop movements into Jordan.

Ironically, Israel's options have been limited by the U.S. presence in the gulf. For example, one Israeli plan -- drawn up before the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait -- is believed to call for waves of warplanes to knock out several dozen Iraqi military targets, including chemical, biological and nuclear installations. Now, say Israeli officials with some remorse, that plan may no longer be viable because it would interfere with U.S. strategy. Instead, Israel is preparing a series of more limited responses gauged according to the severity of any Iraqi strike against Israel, and officials admit that any move by Jerusalem short of urgent defensive action would have to be cleared with the U.S.

Saddam knows that any attack on Israel will bring a crushing response, whether by Israeli or U.S. forces. In fact, it can be argued that Saddam dare not attack Israel alone because a crippling counterstrike by the Israelis would completely undercut his pose in the Arab world as the one leader capable of smoting Israel, even if the attack did not literally kill him.

But Saddam may be able to drag Israel into the conflict without risking military retaliation. Well-placed sources say Iraqi agents in Jordan are preparing to destabilize King Hussein's regime, which could prompt intervention by Israel and Syria while diverting the world's attention. Among the targets already identified: U.S. Ambassador Roger Harrison. Says an Israeli military official: "Creating havoc in Jordan would serve Saddam Hussein's interests well. It might even bring Israel, Syria and even the Saudis to send troops to the Jordanian border."

As billions of dollars in U.S. weapons pour into Arab arsenals and Israel's role as a strategic ally appears diminished, many in Shamir's government are beginning to suspect that the new order emerging in the Middle East may not be entirely to their liking, even if Saddam is eliminated. Hard-liners are especially concerned that a triumphant U.S. may decide to compensate its Arab allies by pressuring Israel into peace talks with the Palestinians.

Those anxieties are well founded. If American blood is shed in a war against Israel's most dangerous foe -- albeit for distinct U.S. interests -- Israel will have a difficult time explaining its own reluctance to make political sacrifices that could promote peace in the region.

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With reporting by Ron Ben-Yishai/Tel Aviv, with other bureaus