The Battle Beckons

By Lisa Beyer

Saddam Hussein really may be his own worst enemy. Here was his opportunity to tell his side of the story to the U.S., a chance to stir up dissent or at least raise a few doubts among the American people as they faced the dark uncertainty of war. And he blew it.

The Iraqi President's videotaped message to America last week was absurdly long -- 75 minutes of a staid Saddam at his desk, potted plant to his left -- and the rambling script brimmed with illogic, non sequiturs and esoteric references to history. In the land of the sound bite, where attention spans are conditioned by the quick democracy of the remote control, The Saddam Show was barely worthy of public-access cable, much less prime-time TV. It was no surprise that the major networks ran only brief excerpts, while CNN relegated its full airing of the tape to 1 a.m. Eastern time. "Nobody who understands modern television," said an American intelligence analyst, "would deliver such a tape."

Saddam has aides who know that. His ambassadors in the West know. His Foreign Minister, who gets around, knows. But as his bungling of the video op demonstrated, the Iraqi leader -- who understands little of the outside world, having traveled abroad only briefly on a couple of occasions -- is taking no counsel. Says an official at the Pentagon: "He seems to be holed up in his own ivory tower."

Meanwhile, down below, the forces aligned against Saddam are growing increasingly restless. Nowadays the talk is mainly about when, not if, there will be war. House Armed Services Committee chairman Les Aspin said last week the Bush Administration appeared to be "looking more and more favorably on the war option." Come mid-November, when the allied military buildup in the gulf will be complete, the Administration will assess whether the economic sanctions are pushing Iraq toward capitulation. Judging from Baghdad's behavior last week, the answer may be no. For the first time, the bellicose ; state threatened to launch a first strike against Saudi Arabia and Israel should the sanctions begin to "strangle" Iraqis.

His adversaries take Saddam at his word. The Iraqi's remarks, said U.S. Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, are the "first evidence that in fact he's really beginning to feel the pain" of the sanctions. As his discomfort grows, said Cheney, Saddam may "use his military force to try to break the stranglehold."

A terrorist attack would be one way for him to lash out. According to U.S. intelligence officials, suspected terrorists have been seen casing U.S. and Saudi facilities in various places around the world. Two weeks ago, Riyadh expelled an undisclosed number of Iraqi, Jordanian and Yemeni diplomats for allegedly spying on foreign forces and passing the information on to Baghdad and terrorist groups. To tighten security, the U.S. military has moved some of its troops from hotels to more remote quarters. Security around Saudi oil fields and refineries has also been stepped up.

But Saddam's belligerence has only driven his foes to tighten their garrote around Iraq. In its eighth resolution against Iraq in eight weeks, the U.N. Security Council approved an air blockade of the maverick state. Though Cuba dissented, Yemen, once a Saddam sympathizer, voted yea, making the tally 14 to 1. Since Iraq receives little goods by air, the ban has little practical value, but it does have symbolic merit as another turn of the screw.

In a remarkable speech to the U.N., Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze delivered his country's toughest words yet on the gulf crisis, explicitly endorsing U.N. military action against Iraq unless it disgorges Kuwait. The address, said a senior Pentagon official, "could have been written at the White House." Washington and Moscow are still at odds over the Soviet position that any military campaign against Iraq should be U.N.-endorsed and under U.N. command. But Shevardnadze's remarks suggest that the Soviets might allow unilateral action against Saddam to pass without protest.

While Iraq last week boosted the number of its troops within striking distance of Saudi Arabia by 70,000, to a total of 430,000, the firepower arrayed against Saddam also mounted. Foreign forces in Saudi Arabia are so multitudinous that "there is no more space to park the airplanes and no more bunks to accommodate the troops," says an amazed Western ambassador in Riyadh. To crowd Saddam even more, Washington announced it would move the aircraft carrier Independence into the Persian Gulf, the first such deployment since 1974. The Navy has long argued that the narrow and shallow Persian Gulf is too confining for carriers, but the move will put the Independence's fighter planes within striking distance of Iraqi targets without the need for in-flight refueling.

Last week brought a worrisome sign, however, of a possible fracture in the alliance. In his U.N. speech, French President Francois Mitterrand suggested offering Saddam a face-saving way out, stating that if Iraq were to promise to withdraw, "everything would be possible," a reference to resolution of Iraq's gripes against Kuwait. A senior Pentagon official said he was "astounded" by Mitterrand's remarks, which contradicted Washington's position that Iraq must leave Kuwait without preconditions. Later, Paris assured Washington that it was not straying from the pack. Mitterrand's remarks, said a senior French official, were merely aimed at "opening a last door ((to Saddam)) before the man commits suicide."

Iran continued to play a double game between Iraq and the anti-Saddam coalition, although Tehran offered Baghdad less and less comfort. Late last week millions of Iranians participated in government-called anti-U.S. demonstrations. In addition, Tehran said it would continue to sell Iraq small amounts of food, citing humanitarian exemptions from the U.N. sanctions. But the Iranians promised they would otherwise abide by the blockade. That quieted speculation that the Iranians might serve as a front for Iraqi oil sales and helped bring about the resumption of diplomatic ties with Britain, which were severed in early 1989 over the Salman Rushdie affair.

The Saudis are feeling ever more confident. Although Saudi officials publicly continue to stress the defensive nature of the visiting forces, their statements and actions are increasingly aggressive. Openly feuding with Jordan over King Hussein's wishy-washiness, the Saudis have cut off oil supplies to that country, which had been relying on its neighbor for half its energy needs. For added emphasis, Prince Bandar Bin Sultan, Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the U.S., published a scathing open letter to King Hussein in the New York Times and the Washington Post, attacking him for sympathizing with Saddam.

The growing acceptance of the inevitability of war springs from a consensus that Saddam has made up his mind not to back down. It is impossible, of course, to predict the behavior of a man as determined and clever as he is. Because he blithely jails or executes all adversaries, Western intelligence agencies have great difficulty getting spies close to him. Still, students of Saddam's behavior believe that they have a fix on his mind-set.

According to Dr. Jerrold Post, founder of the CIA's center for analyzing the psychology of world leaders, Saddam exhibits a well-documented syndrome known as malignant narcissism. Among its elements are overarching arrogance and ambition. This crisis finally puts Saddam where he feels he should be, at the center of world attention, as befits a great historical figure. He sees himself going head-to-head with George Bush, leader of the Western world, a perception Judith Kipper, a Middle East expert at the Brookings Institution, believes Bush mistakenly encourages with his occasional ad hominem attacks on the Iraqi leader. "Saddam is not going to give up," says Dr. Vanik Volkan, director of the Center for the Study of the Mind and Human Interaction at the University of Virginia Medical School in Charlottesville. "The No. 1 thing for him is to maintain his grand sense of self, which is intertwined with Arab issues at this point."

At the same time, Saddam has a history of making extraordinary reversals, as when he abruptly returned in August the territory he won during his war with Iran so he could concentrate his troops in Kuwait. Saddam sees that he still has time for stubbornness, since an unprovoked attack against him is not yet imminent. He may soften later on. But some analysts expect him to stand firm in the belief that he can actually survive a fight. "We really think this man might take us into war without realizing what he is up against," notes a senior Arab official. "He seems to think he's still facing Iran. And no one who is close to him will tell him how it is."

That point, some analysts say, argues for delivering a blunt message to Saddam that he must withdraw or face obliteration. The Soviets might be the most effective messengers, using their existing contacts in Baghdad to set the Iraqi President straight. Of course, if Saddam becomes convinced he cannot win, he could then retreat with his war machine fully intact, a scenario that chills his opponents. "But do you know whom we are counting on to ensure that doesn't happen?" asks the Arab official. "Saddam Hussein. He has an amazing ability to shoot himself in the foot." That assessment hardly bodes a peaceful denouement.

With reporting by Dean Fischer/Riyadh, Dan Goodgame/Washington, and J.F.O.McAllister/New York