Handicapping the War

By PAUL GRAY/

Speculation about when the U.S. and its allies will move against Saddam Hussein is now rife, and hardly idle. Financial markets have been rising and falling on nearly every clue and rumor. The most discussed potential timetables:

NOVEMBER

U.S. elections are over. There will be nighttime Kuwaiti high tides and little moonlight at mid-month, favorable conditions for an invasion. President Bush's promised Thanksgiving visit could be a trick to lull Saddam into complacency.

DECEMBER

( Not especially propitious. For one thing, there is the p.r. problem of launching a war in the holiday season, though the U.S. went into Panama Dec. 20. For another, some 150,000 additional U.S. troops will not be in place until . . .

JANUARY

A lot of smart money is on this month. Top officials in the U.S. and French governments, among others, are already saying that if anything happens it is likely to happen then. Patience with the U.N. trade embargo against Iraq may be wearing thin, and the armed alliance in Saudi Arabia could be showing rifts. Action may be necessary to stave off dissolution.

BEYOND

The picture here, as well as the weather in the Persian Gulf, turns cloudy. Air strikes become more difficult. Spring will bring Easter and the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, and several other reasons for everyone to do nothing. If the status quo survives until then, all bets are off.

With reporting by David E. Thigpen