The West: No Cold War II

By Michael Serrill.

The sight of Soviet troops in the streets of the Baltics poses a chilling worry for the West: Is this the end of the end of the cold war? Pessimists foresee a Soviet Union spinning out of control, splintering into warring ethnic fiefdoms and spewing a stream of refugees across Europe. But most Western analysts believe the future is less perilous. Autocracy might well return to the Soviet Union's political and economic life, or the country could break up. Either will strain East-West relations, but both sides have too much invested in cooperation to put their security at risk anew. Sovietologists agree that Cold War II is not at hand.

The toughest pill for the West to swallow may be its own impotence. Beyond signaling their displeasure, Washington and Europe can do little to affect events inside the U.S.S.R. "The Soviets are sensitive to what is being said abroad," says a French official. "But frankly, we can't hope that what we do will cause Moscow to change its behavior." Moreover, some analysts advise that punishing Gorbachev for the blood spilled in Vilnius and Riga by withdrawing Western aid might undercut him and strengthen Soviet hard-liners. A U.S. official points out that almost all the aid Washington has pledged "will benefit the reformers and not the reactionaries."

Nevertheless, demands are growing to enact sanctions, especially in the U.S. Congress. President Bush is considering postponing the Feb. 11-13 Moscow summit. But the consensus among Gorbachev watchers is that the most sensible course for Western nations is to wait, watch, and pursue their self-interest. Washington has an agenda with Moscow -- topped by arms control -- that it wants to save, however disillusioned it might be by Gorbachev's retreat from reform. The gulf coalition has a strong interest in keeping Gorbachev aboard. -- a conviction that was only enhanced by last week's unconfirmed reports that the Soviet military was still providing help to Saddam Hussein.

At the same time, the West is preparing for the possibility that reactionary generals might come to dominate Soviet security policy. Defense officials in the U.S. and Europe are already rethinking hopes for new reductions in conventional and nuclear forces. "It's lucky we didn't dissolve NATO in the euphoria of Gorbymania," says a senior British diplomat. No one expects the turmoil in Moscow to result in a new attempt to subjugate Eastern Europe or even to slow the departure of Soviet troops. "The Soviet withdrawal will go ahead as planned," predicted Klaus Segbers of Germany's Institute for Science and Policy. But the convulsions will undermine Western confidence in the Soviets as a worthwhile economic and military partner. The rapid improvement in East-West relations depends on a reforming Soviet Union. If Moscow is turning the clock back, the West will find it hard to keep that partnership alive.

With reporting by William Mader/London and J.F.O. McAllister/Washington