Soviet Union: Operation Steppe Shield?

By George J. Church.

American intervention in a Soviet civil war? The thought sounds even crazier than -- oh, say, a suggestion last Aug. 1 that the U.S. might send half a million soldiers, sailors and aviators to the Persian Gulf to fight a war against Iraq. But around the Pentagon and the CIA, the question is by no means dismissed out of hand: circumstances can be foreseen in which the dilemma would at least need to be addressed.

There is nothing farfetched about the idea that there might be a civil war in the U.S.S.R. Senior American intelligence officials believe there is a "very real" possibility of widespread disorder; several analysts compare 1991 with 1917, the year of the Bolshevik Revolution. A complete breakdown, they fear, could happen with stunning rapidity, perhaps in only 10 to 20 days. Says an assessment drafted last week: "Labor strikes in key sectors at the same time political and military power is being fragmented by ((secessionist moves on the part of)) republics, and even ((individual)) cities . . . could create a sudden economic collapse which could cause civil unrest."

Similar fears are being voiced in the U.S.S.R., and the approach of a nationwide referendum on March 17 has done nothing to ease them. President Mikhail Gorbachev is asking citizens to vote yes or no on preserving the union; the question is unsubtly worded virtually to demand a yes reply. A Pravda editorial posed the choice as "Union or Chaos."

Chaos seems likely in any case. Six of the 15 republics have refused to take part; Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have held their own referendums, denounced as illegal by Gorbachev, in which voters opted for independence by heavy margins. Other republics have, without sanction, altered the question or hooked others onto it. Citizens of the Russian republic will decide whether to have a popularly elected President; if they say yes, Boris Yeltsin could win a popular mandate that would enable him to mount a stronger challenge than ever to Gorbachev. The central government has announced that it will not take no for an answer; if any republic returns a negative majority, it still would not be permitted to secede. Radical sociologist Boris Grushin writes that the referendum could begin "a balancing act on the brink of civil war."

As long as Gorbachev stays in power, George Bush will try to work with him. But Administration officials worry about what might happen if Gorbachev is replaced, or co-opted, by a military junta. Suppose, for example, the new regime attempted an outright conquest and occupation of the Baltics, which called on the U.S. for help? Or suppose it not only repressed internal dissidents but also canceled Gorbachev's plans to pull remaining Soviet troops out of Eastern Europe?

Some military and intelligence officers believe the U.S. should send a strong signal to discourage Soviet backsliding and ready plans in case it occurs. At a minimum, says National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft, "given . . . the turmoil in the Soviet Union, this is not the time to decide that there's a completely new era and a U.S. presence can be removed" from Europe. Pentagon and CIA officials also have begun a careful evaluation of plans to redeploy units from the gulf. Some warships previously bound for home ports may be delayed. Officials hint that ground troops normally based in Europe but set to return to the U.S. will do so -- but maybe not quite as soon as they would hope.

With reporting by Michael Duffy/Washington