World Notes

Will Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu become a gulf-war casualty? That possibility was raised last week after Kaifu's ruling Liberal Democratic Party was badly jolted by the 2-to-1 defeat of its candidate for the governorship of Tokyo. The humiliating upset prompted the resignation of the party's chief political operative, Ichiro Ozawa, who took responsibility for the loss. Ruling party insiders say that Ozawa had agreed to try to prevent re-election of the L.D.P.'s incumbent governor as part of a deal with the opposition, in exchange for passage of Japan's additional $9 billion gulf-war contribution in the Diet.

The L.D.P. fiasco has stirred speculation that Kaifu's days may be numbered -- or at the very least that his chances of re-election next October are doomed. "Without Ozawa in one of the party top posts, Kaifu could be a lame- duck Prime Minister," observed a Japanese politician. Others speculate that Ozawa's sudden downfall might trigger the comeback of former Prime Minister Noboru Takeshita, still considered one of the most powerful politicians in Japan despite his resignation two years ago over an influence- peddling scandal.