Why Not The Best?

By Dan Goodgame/Washington

For a while George Bush made it possible to forget about Dan Quayle. The Vice President, whose name has become a worldwide synonym for a man in over his head, faded into near invisibility as Bush dominated the headlines with his forceful leadership in Panama and the Persian Gulf. Watching the frenetic President jog and swim, angle for bonefish and gun his speedboat, few thought of him as an ordinary mortal nearing his 67th birthday.

But that all changed on May 4, when Bush pulled up short of breath while jogging at Camp David. His doctors quickly detected an irregular heartbeat and rushed him to Bethesda Naval Hospital. As it turned out, the President had not suffered a heart attack. But hearts across the nation and around the world began to fibrillate at the thought that Quayle might suddenly be thrust into the most powerful position on earth.

On May 6, Bush briefly considered transferring his powers to the Vice President under the 25th Amendment so that doctors could put him under general anesthesia and administer an electric shock to stabilize his heartbeat. The treatment proved unnecessary, and tests later showed that Bush's condition was caused by Graves' disease, a noncontagious thyroid ailment that, coincidentally, also afflicts First Lady Barbara Bush. The condition is usually manageable with drugs and low doses of radiation. Bush returned to the White House early last week and resumed work, albeit at a slightly less frantic pace.

But while the President seemed to be returning to normal, the rest of the country continued to suffer from the shakes. New polls showed that most Americans, including a majority of Republicans, harbor deep doubts about Quayle. This public sentiment is echoed, with refinements, by senior White House officials and other top Republicans, most of whom concede privately that they are highly uncomfortable with the prospect of Quayle's replacing Bush. Their consensus is that Quayle, while harder working and more capable than his public image suggests, will never develop the broad grasp of issues or the commanding presence to serve as an effective Chief Executive.

Such public and private assessments of Quayle have revived speculation -- and fervent hope -- that Bush will drop him from the 1992 G.O.P. ticket. Those who know Bush best, however, are sure that those hopes will be dashed unless Quayle becomes so much of a liability that he threatens Bush's chances to win a second term. G.O.P. strategists calculate that dumping him would pose more political risks than keeping him on the ticket. The biggest danger of a switch would be damage to Bush's credibility, which, despite his victory in the gulf war, remains strained by his flip-flops on abortion, gun control and especially taxes. "The President has been taking heat on Quayle for so long that if he dropped him now, the political damage would be 10 times worse than it was on taxes," says a senior Republican strategist. "The President would look like just another scum politician, and one of the main things he has going for him is that the public sees him as more honorable and principled than that."

True to form, Bush rushed to Quayle's defense last week. Asked what he thought of the cries for the Vice President's replacement, Bush half-jokingly ) threatened to flip an obscene gesture at reporters, saying "Do you want that by word or by hand?"

Other White House officials, sympathetic toward the Vice President yet cognizant of his shortcomings, emphasize that Quayle has not performed worse in the White House than he did during his unremarkable congressional career and that the blame for his selection must fall to Bush. In fact, to understand why Bush will not dump Quayle, it is helpful to consider why he chose him over better-qualified candidates in the first place. Like other presidential nominees, Bush looked not for the most capable potential successor but rather for the running mate who could help him win the White House by compensating for his own perceived weaknesses:

The most important of these was Bush's peculiar need to demonstrate independence in his first "presidential" decision. Resentful of news stories that depicted him as Ronald Reagan's lapdog and a tool of savvy campaign "handlers," Bush decided that he would choose his running mate in secret and that his pick would be dramatic and unexpected.

Bush also wanted a Vice President who would define the job as he had defined it under Reagan and would not upstage or challenge him. The choice of a running mate always poses a trade-off between finding a person competent to step in if the President becomes incapacitated and one who is self-effacing enough to stand uncomplainingly in the President's shadow. In choosing Quayle, Bush clearly gave more importance to the latter than to the former.

Bush hoped that Quayle, as a movement conservative, would energize or at least neutralize the G.O.P.'s right wing, which had always viewed Bush with suspicion. "A lot of the high-echelon members of this Administration are considered to be in the moderate camp," says Republican national chairman Clayton Yeutter, "so Vice President Quayle serves the President as a very effective liaison to the more conservative segment of the party."

Finally, Bush wished to reach out through the 44-year-old Quayle to a younger generation of voters. This last hope was dashed when Republican pollsters determined that voters in Quayle's age group resented him as someone born to wealth and privilege who had not paid his dues, yet had been elevated over worthier candidates.

In the President's mind, most of his reasons for tapping Quayle remain valid. But by clinging so stubbornly to a Vice President that few inside or ) outside the Administration believe is qualified -- or can ever become qualified -- to take his place, Bush is elevating his personal political interests above the national interest.

The President's refusal to reconsider dumping Quayle is all the more baffling because the Republican Party is blessed with a number of attractive alternatives in Bush's Cabinet, the Senate and statehouses around the nation. Selecting any of them would signal to the nation that the President is aware of the need to provide a potential successor who is capable not only of leading the country but also of inspiring public confidence.

In the following story, TIME profiles five prominent Republican officials who have the experience and stature required for the vice presidency. All would provide some balance to the 1992 ticket. All are well enough liked by Bush to work with him in the style he demands.

The list would be longer if sheer competence had been the only criterion. Secretary of State James Baker, for example, is eminently well qualified to take over the White House if need be. But as a fellow Texan, Baker would offer Bush little help on the G.O.P. ticket -- and he is not self-effacing enough for the second-banana role. Senate Republican Leader Bob Dole is out of the running because he and Bush still nurse bruises from their bitter fight for the Republican nomination. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Jack Kemp, the right wing's favorite for Vice President in 1988, annoys Bush with his long-winded expositions of conservative political theories. But even if these possibilities are excluded, Bush has plenty of prospects from which to choose, if he would choose to do so.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE

CREDIT: From a telephone poll of 500 American adults taken for TIME/CNN on May 8 by Yankelovich Clancy Shulman. Sampling error is plus or minus 4.5%. "Not sures" omitted.

CAPTION: If President Bush runs for re-election, do you think he should keep Vice President Quayle as his running mate?

If Bush keeps Quayle as his running mate, would this make you more or less likely to vote for Bush next year?