Turkey Losing a Staunch Friend

By Frederick Painton

Democratic electorates tend to bounce strong leaders out of office when they become overbearing. Even national heroes like Winston Churchill and Charles de Gaulle felt the parting sting of popular rejection at the ballot box. Last week it was the turn of Turkey's President Turgut Ozal, who is sometimes known to his citizenry as "the Sultan" for his imperious ways. Although Ozal's presidential term runs until 1996, his ruling Motherland Party received only about 24% of the vote, leaving the President without a majority in Parliament. The outlook, as the winners began to negotiate with other parties about forming a coalition government, was for a period of prolonged confusion.

The defeated President had no illusions about his fate. Said he: "The Ozal era is over." Thus ended eight years of strenuous economic growth (9.2% last year), in which Ozal opened Turkey to the West, bullied his countrymen into embracing free-enterprise capitalism and, in the course of backing the U.S.-led coalition in the gulf war, greatly ingratiated himself with George Bush. During 70 foreign trips, Ozal tirelessly emphasized Turkey's strategic importance. More than ever, he insisted, Ankara is vital as a bridge to the Middle East, a bulwark against Islamic fundamentalism, and a force for stability at a time when violence and disorder, already endemic in the Middle East, are spreading in the Balkans and the Soviet Union.

Despite Ozal's reputation abroad, the voters were offended by his high- handed ways, his expensive taste and his lavish patronage to family and friends. Ozal was also blamed for an inflation rate now estimated at 70% a year. Prices were pushed even higher a few months ago after Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz, 43, handed out generous wage increases to public employees in the hope of winning their votes.

So the Turks abandoned Ozal for an older-model politician. For the nominal winner, Suleyman Demirel, 67, the right-wing leader of the True Path Party, victory was sweet revenge against a political enemy whom he had long since sworn to oust from office. But with only about 27% of the vote, Demirel was carefully looking for partners with whom to form a fragile coalition. Demirel, who served six times as Prime Minister during the 1960s and '70s, was twice removed from office by the armed forces. This time, in addition to high % inflation, he inherits a budget deficit of $6 billion and a foreign debt of $44 billion. Although the country desperately needs a program of austerity, Demirel is reluctant to impose such a remedy. In Turkey, where electoral rhetoric is colorful and expansive, Demirel customarily promises a lot more than his competitors. In the recent campaign, he told audiences that he would like to give two keys to every Turkish citizen -- one for a house, the other for a car. Demirel's political road show included a white stallion, the emblem of his party, and a rider. Horse and rider would rear up at the end of a fiery speech by Demirel, who would have sworn to sweep away Ozal, "his crown, his throne and all."

Ozal leaves behind him a bequest that can only benefit Demirel: a national consensus. Says Hasan Cemal, editor of one of Turkey's most influential newspapers, Cumhuriyet: "The clock cannot be turned back. The multiparty democratic system is here to stay. All parties except the fundamentalists make joining the European Community their No. 1 priority. We are on the right track." The same consensus applies to the economy. Whatever Demirel's reservations about the dangers of unbridled capitalism and his past inclination to subsidize state industries, he will have little choice but to follow in the path of Ozal's market-oriented economic policies.

More divisive, and perhaps most serious of all, is the war with Kurdish separatists that is spreading in the southeastern part of the country, where nearly half of Turkey's 12 million Kurds live. Ozal tried to start a dialogue with the Kurds. Demirel is expected to take a tougher stand. Fighting has already crossed the border into Iraq. Over the weekend, Turkish planes bombed Iraqi areas from which Kurdish guerrillas staged a raid into Turkey that killed 17 soldiers. The Kurdish issue could conceivably prevent Demirel from forming a new government with the Social Democratic Populist Party, which came in third in the election with 20.8% of the vote.

On all issues, the narrowness of Demirel's victory will limit his mandate. His central campaign promise was to oust Ozal from the presidency immediately, instead of waiting until 1996, by changing the constitution. But few political leaders would welcome a constitutional crisis when Turkey is seeking to show the European Community and its NATO allies that it is a stable, reliable partner. Says a Western diplomat in Ankara: "Demirel has a mandate not to be like Ozal -- but not to get rid of him either."

With reporting by Mehmet Ali Kislali/Ankara and James Wilde/Istanbul