Blowing In the Wind

What was George Bush up to? Until last week, he was busily trying to bolster President Mikhail Gorbachev in his struggle to keep the Soviet Union intact. Then on Thanksgiving eve Bush's staff leaked a startling message: the U.S. was ready to recognize an independent Ukraine -- even before Ukrainians had voted for it in a referendum.

Part of the explanation could be traced to last August, when the botched Soviet coup gave the Baltic republics the final opening to bolt from the U.S.S.R. The U.S. dragged its feet in recognizing their independence, and Bush's critics wondered why he had taken so long. In diplomatic terms, Bush's ! caution was understandable, but it hurt him among conservative Republicans, who are looming ever larger in White House political thinking as rightist political columnist Patrick Buchanan prepares for a presidential run in 1992.

Not incidentally, Bush had met with Ukrainian Americans on the day his change of heart was leaked. White House officials explained that the new policy aimed to put Washington "in the front of the pack" diplomatically, ahead of European countries that had been hinting at quick recognition for Ukraine if Bush dawdled. But the Europeans were angry that Washington sprang the decision without consulting them, an accusation U.S. officials denied. "Bush is panicking for votes," said a senior German diplomat. "Let us hope this is not a harbinger of things to come."