Russia Yeltsin's Enemies

By JAMES CARNEY MOSCOW

Warnings of a coming dictatorship have been as common in Moscow this winter as street-corner complaints about high prices. Down through Russia's history, authoritarianism has been the rule, reform and democracy the rare -- and brief -- exception. For that reason alone, the odds seem to dictate that President Boris Yeltsin's efforts to install a new system will founder and the strong hand will follow. Even Yeltsin has raised the specter. "I have faith in our reforms," he said on a visit to France last month. "But if they fail, I can already feel the breath of the redshirts and Brownshirts on our necks."

Yeltsin's words rang true on the streets of Moscow last week when communists and ultra-nationalists clashed with police during an antigovernment demonstration. Despite outnumbering the 5,000 demonstrators 2 to 1, city militia and riot police responded with billy clubs when the crowd broke their cordons. The clashes left 20 policemen and seven civilians injured.

It was the first violent demonstration in Moscow under Yeltsin's rule, but it testified less to the strength of the opposition than to the President's mishandling of the threat. Had they simply let the demonstration go on, Yeltsin and his supporters in the Moscow city government could have pointed to the tiny turnout as proof that the great majority of Russians prefer democratic reform to any brand of authoritarianism, communist or fascist. Instead, the disparate opposition forces won a fresh reason to rail against the government. Wrote Eduard Limonov, in the conservative Sovetskaya Rossiya newspaper: "The first beatings are usually followed by the first bullets and the first murders."

While Yeltsin still enjoys public support, there is no shortage of would-be successors trying to stir up discontent and resistance. Opposition groups range from communist movements nostalgic for Stalinist strong-arm rule to ultra-right nationalist parties preaching Russian imperial supremacy. Increasingly, these two have edged toward forming a common front against Yeltsin in the name of "saving the fatherland." Both have been courting the former Soviet army; despite internal divisions, the 3.7 million-strong military remains the only force capable of toppling the government. Another threat may come from the ranks of democrats who carried Yeltsin to power but who have since splintered into factions. Here are some of Yeltsin's enemies, real and potential:

THE COMMUNISTS. Following the failed coup last August, Yeltsin punished the Communist Party by banning it on Russian territory and confiscating its vast property. Nine new groups claim to be the party's heir. Their leaders are generally little-known former functionaries or true believers; they draw much of their support from party bureaucrats who have lost their status, privileges and often their jobs. The new communist parties have also found allies in trade-union officials who fear that market reform will lead to factory closures and mass unemployment.

Until recently, demonstrations for the return of communism rarely attracted more than 100 people, but soaring inflation brought on by price liberalization has swelled the ranks of the disgruntled. Nevertheless, communism is so discredited that most observers dismiss the likelihood of a red revival.

"The communist idea in our country is quickly becoming part of the past," says Vitali Tretyakov, editor of the reform newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "It offers nothing that will improve people's lives."

THE NATIONALISTS. Many of the communist sympathizers are trying to broaden their appeal by adopting some of the nationalist and patriotic themes of the right wing. At last week's demonstration, symbols of Russian imperialism were almost as common a sight as the hammer and sickle. Viktor Alksnis, who led a faction of hard-liners in the old Soviet parliament, has teamed up with noncommunist nationalists in an umbrella movement called Nashi (Ours) that seeks to restore the U.S.S.R., whether in its previous form or as a new Russian empire. "Anyone who supports the union is ours," says Alksnis.

Perhaps the most potent figure in the Nashi coalition is Vladimir Zhirinovsky, a noisy demagogue whose ravings have earned him comparisons to Hitler. As chairman of the deceptively named Liberal-Democratic Party, Zhirinovsky campaigned on a platform mixing promises of cheaper vodka with blatant xenophobia to place a surprising third in the Russian presidential election won by Yeltsin last June. He has threatened to poison the newly independent Baltic peoples with nuclear waste and vows to expand Russian territory by force. Though his fanaticism has made him mainly a vulgar curiosity, some observers fear he may be a forerunner of politicians to come. Says Lev Timofeyev, a market-oriented economist: "A person with a program like Zhirinovsky's could be dangerous."

GOVERNMENT RIVALS. One of the government's most outspoken critics is the man legally entitled to take over if Yeltsin should depart: Vice President Alexander Rutskoi. He provided key support when his Communists for Democracy faction split with party hard-liners and backed Yeltsin's campaign for Russia's top post. Yeltsin rewarded him with the second spot, but since last fall Rutskoi has turned on his boss with a very public campaign against the economic reform plan of Deputy Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar. Though a proponent of reform in principle, Rutskoi recently described Gaidar's program of freeing prices before privatizing state property as "economic genocide of the Russian people."

Though Rutskoi has carefully avoided criticizing Yeltsin personally, the President has moved to limit his erstwhile ally's authority and recently assigned him the thankless agricultural portfolio. But Yeltsin has stopped short of trying to oust Rutskoi, possibly because he considers it wiser to tolerate a rebellious Vice President than to have him lead an opposition campaign. "Rutskoi can only form a viable party if he resigns," says Tretyakov. As if preparing for such a move, Rutskoi has lately been sounding nationalist themes along with his economic critiques.

THE MILITARY. All opposition figures have supported the military in its complaints: low pay, poor housing and uncertainty brought on by the disintegration of the union. The army remains a powerful wild card. While Marshal Yevgeni Shaposhnikov, military commander of the new Commonwealth of Independent States, has assured both Yeltsin and the West that the army will not take part in any coup, some officers have suggested that they should take the initiative to "save" the country. Aware of the threat, Yeltsin has heeded the complaints: in January he raised officers' salaries 90%.

As long as the military remains on the sidelines and political opponents lack broad support, the greatest challenge for Yeltsin will be to prevent the reform movement from self-destructing. Constant sniping from his onetime allies -- including such liberals as Russian Parliament Chairman Ruslan Khasbulatov, St. Petersburg Mayor Anatoli Sobchak and Moscow Mayor Gavril Popov -- threatens to undermine support for his economic plan. "The danger is that their criticism will become the dominant view in society," says Robert Legvold, director of Columbia University's Harriman Institute.

Should that happen, Yeltsin could be so weakened politically that the public might begin considering hard-line opposition figures as real alternatives. "If Russia fails in its reforms, especially of the economy," Yeltsin | warned last month, "a dictatorship will appear." Drained of popular support, Yeltsin would have to compromise his policies or risk being replaced. Either way, his warning might then become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

With reporting by Frank Melville/London and Jay Peterzell/Washington