The Spirit of '76

By Michael Duffy/Washington

For Bob Teeter, the 1992 campaign is shaping up like a recurring nightmare. It was 16 years ago that Teeter, serving as Gerald Ford's campaign pollster, watched while the incumbent Republican President came under relentless attack from a more conservative Ronald Reagan. Although Ford eventually won the nomination, he was badly damaged by the intramural fight and went on to lose a close general election to Jimmy Carter.

Ford was later criticized for two miscalculations that may help explain why Bush has been madly maneuvering in recent weeks. First, critics said Ford was slow to take the Reagan challenge seriously, in part because the former actor did not win a primary until the North Carolina contest in late March 1976. Apart from banning the word detente at the White House, Ford refused to pander to the party's right wing. Instead he crisscrossed the country to meet Reagan head on, in a series of trips that made him look desperate and distinctly nonpresidential.

Bush, by contrast, is taking no chances. Under Teeter's guidance he has moved quickly to polish his conservative credentials by coming full circle on taxes and soliciting the resignation of National Endowment for the Arts Chairman John Frohnmayer after Buchanan demanded his head. Bush denied that a five-day swing through seven Southern states last week was beginning to make him appear panicked and frantic. "I've thought about that, and I've concluded it doesn't. What I want to do is look like we're not taking anything for granted." But the same day, Bush suddenly cut short his travel plans and returned to Washington, where he will stay for the better part of a month. Bush will attack Congress for ignoring his "growth package" and hope regular attacks on Democrats will make him look presidential. "It's the Jerry Ford factor," explained a senior campaign adviser last week. "Teeter is spooked by his own past."

The two races remain markedly dissimilar. Whereas Ford became President after Richard Nixon resigned, Bush was elected in his own right. Unlike Buchanan, Reagan was a proven vote getter, who had twice been elected Governor of one of the nation's biggest states, and went on to win 10 primaries. Nonetheless, the spirit of 1976 may already be working for the Democrats. As a senior Bush campaign adviser said last week, "Everybody knows that the way to defeat an incumbent President is with a challenge from the ideological wing of the party."

Buchanan knows that while Reagan lost the '76 nomination, his gutsy challenge to Ford strengthened his position in the crowded 1980 Republican primary race. Buchanan has already gained a spot near Dan Quayle in the 1996 starting gate. "Reagan dusted Ford up, but it didn't prevent him from winning it the next time," an Administration official says. "Pat is rolling the dice and figures he could become the heir apparent to the conservative wing."

Teeter may not be the only Bush operative having flashbacks to 1976. Secretary of State James Baker was Ford's campaign manager; Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney was Ford's chief of staff -- and both men may want to run in 1996 as well. (Bush, whom Ford considered briefly as a possible Vice President in 1974, largely sat out the '76 race as CIA director.)

On the Democratic side, there is another spirit of 1976 haunting the 1992 campaign: Jerry Brown. Sixteen years later, Brown is back in. Fortunately, turtlenecks are not.