Bumpy Stretch for a Rattled President

The beleaguered Bush campaign seemed to be dodging an army of ghosts. Was the President seriously ill? "Crazy time on rumors," said Bush, 68. Would Dan Quayle be dumped from the ticket? Absolutely not, the President insisted; Quayle's hold on the job was "very certain." Would James Baker leave his post as Secretary of State to rescue his old friend's campaign? Well . . .

With Bush and Quayle dropping precipitously in the polls and their party in serious danger of losing four to six Senate seats as well, many Republicans are praying that Baker, who headed the Bush campaign in 1988, will return by next month to lead a revival. G.O.P. discontent was surely deepened by images of Bill Clinton and Al Gore bounding through eight states on a 1,240-mile bus tour marked by camera-friendly street rallies and upbeat TV appearances. At each stop, a beaming Clinton showed off his running mate like a new sports car. "Didn't I make a good choice?" became a standard line.

Though Bush and Quayle were both stumping too, their efforts to portray the Clinton-Gore team as liberals in moderate clothing were constantly deflected by questions about their own prospects and record in office. In a week when Bush faced hecklers at a gathering of POW and MIA families, quayle gritted his teeth and denied that he was on the brink of being dropped from the team. When he turned up on CNN'S Larry King Live to repeat that line, however, he seemed to provide his own escape clause. "Believe me, if I thought that I was hurting the ticket, I'd be gone," he said -- even as new polls showed that half or more of voters would approve if Bush dropped him. The Vice President was further distracted from his intended message when, asked what he would do if his daughter, now 13, grew up and had an unwanted pregnancy, he suggested that he would advise her to have the child but would support whatever decision she made -- including abortion. Pro-choice activists quickly said that sounded pro-choice to them, obliging Quayle to backtrack.

The new flap over Quayle also diverted attention from the Administration's attempt to blame the Democrats for the deficit and the sickly economy. Introducing the Administration's midyear economic review, Budget Director Richard Darman blasted Congress for failing to enact Bush's economic program, including his proposals to reduce the capital-gains tax and give first-time homebuyers a $5,000 tax credit.

Nor did the White House economic forecast offer much solace to candidate Bush. It predicted a meager 2.7% growth rate for the year -- up from the January prediction of 2.2% but still sluggish. Two days before the forecast was issued, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, presenting the central bank's semiannual report, predicted that the weak recovery would become more stable sometime next year -- too late to help the President's re-election bid.

All the more reason to bring back James Baker, though even that step is hardly free of risk. If Baker relinquishes his post at State, the President will be vulnerable to charges that he is willing to subordinate U.S. global interests to his own political needs. He would thus risk ceding the high ground on his one area of unchallenged strength, foreign policy.

The postconvention love fest that surrounded Clinton and Gore all week contributed to a startling surge in their standing in the polls. A TIME/CNN poll gave the Democratic ticket a 2-to-1 lead over Bush. Those numbers will inevitably change as the season unfolds and new events intrude on the campaign. But at the moment, there is every reason for the President to consider alternative routes to his planned destination. (See related story on page 38.)

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE

CREDIT: From a telephone poll of 855 registered voters taken for TIME/CNN on July 22-23 by Yankelovich Clancy Shulman. Sampling error is plus or minus 3%

CAPTION: If the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote?