In The Eye of the Political Storm

For George Bush, Andrew could hardly have been more ill-timed. Just as the President had begun to emphasize what he promised would be a bold approach to domestic policy in a second term, the hurricane threw him on the defensive. Instead of showcasing Bush's strengths as a crisis manager, the storm offered the Democrats an opening to charge that he was, once again, slow to respond to problems at home. Fairly or not, Bush was, by week's end, deflecting questions about his performance. "There's no point," he said, "getting into blame and this who-shot-John thing that I know everybody's fascinated with."

To his credit, Bush cut short a political trip to New Jersey last Monday and hurried to Florida to view the damage just hours after the hurricane blew through. But he stayed just an hour and a half and spent only a few minutes chatting with Florida Governor Lawton Chiles during a photo opportunity. Two days later, again anxious to show fresh tactical flexibility under newly installed chief of staff James Baker, the White House hustled Bush off to Louisiana in Andrew's wake. "The President," Bush explained to the sodden residents of New Iberia, "ought to show up when people are hurting."

But in Florida, which took the hardest hit, local officials were blaming Washington for the slow response, while federal bureaucrats retorted that the state had failed to ask formally for military help. Not until Transportation Secretary Andrew Card met with Chiles and an angry Florida congressional delegation on Thursday did Bush move beyond motion and into action. That night he ordered the Pentagon to rush everything from food to field hospitals to south Florida. But by then, four days had passed. Bush, like nearly everyone else, had badly underestimated the damage.

The season is well under way in which every act by the incumbent presidential candidate is viewed through an electoral lens. Florida just happens to be a critical state in November. Bush may yet demonstrate leadership in the wake of Andrew and turn the state's reconstruction to his advantage. But even before Andrew hit, polls suggested that Democrats had their first real chance in 16 years to win Florida's 25 electoral votes. That made the stakes considerably higher -- and the prospects of solicitous attention considerably greater for Floridians.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE

CREDIT: From a telephone poll of 836 likely voters taken for TIME/CNN on Aug. 25-27 by Yankelovich Clancy Shulman. Sampling error is plus or minus 3%.

CAPTION: If the election for President were held today, for whom would you vote?

With this survey, TIME is changing its sample from "registered voters" to "likely voters" - those most likely to cast ballots in November - to obtain a more realistic snapshot of the electorate.