Monday, Nov. 02, 1992
Rolling Into Uncharted Territory
When the brief flurry of televised debates ended last Monday in East Lansing, Michigan, the 1992 campaign seemed poised to return to normal, or at least toward what passes for that condition every four years in the U.S.: candidates barnstorming, crowds growing more numerous and noisy, posters and signs flapping in the cooling October sunshine. And that, on the colorful, roiling surface, is pretty much what happened; how accurate or deceiving these appearances were remains tantalizingly in doubt.
There was President Bush, visibly elated and upbeat after his strong showing in the third debate, addressing cheering crowds, hammering home with new fire and focus his message that voters should not entrust their government to a small-state Democratic Governor whose public policies and statements, Bush charged repeatedly, amounted to "a pattern of deception." But the President was saying these things in places like North and South Carolina, New Jersey, Florida -- states that have been secure Republican bastions during recent national elections. Campaigning so late in the race on formerly safe turf suggested, despite all the attendant euphoria, a certain desperation among the Bush forces.
And there was someone else hitting the hustings in traditionally G.O.P. territory. Governor Clinton rode his postdebate bounce into the Rocky Mountain and Pacific Northwest regions and even held a well-attended rally in Orange County, California, prototypical rock-ribbed Republican country, where he urged members of the audience to "hold their noses and vote for a Democrat." All the national polls continued to show Clinton in the lead, although the margins of approval varied markedly and a TIME/CNN poll showed the gap could be as slight as 3% if weighted toward not just those registered to vote but those most likely to do so. The candidate and his aides continued to warn | against any overconfidence within their own ranks that might translate into an apathetic Clinton turnout on Nov. 3.
Both major candidates have good reason to be wary, because somewhere in his 17th-floor aerie in a North Dallas office building is Ross Perot, whose potential impact on the 1992 race is still unclear. Generally written off when he re-entered the campaign on Oct. 1, Perot profited from his three blunt, engaging debate performances and his well-received, 30-minute TV commercials. Holding his public appearances and press conferences to a minimum, Perot has nonetheless seen his ratings climb from single digits into figures that in such states as New Mexico, Arizona, Arkansas and California approach those of Bush.
An old political adage has it that Americans don't really get serious about presidential elections until after the World Series. Thanks to baseball's play-off schedule, the fall classic now runs deep into October, this year leaving scarcely more than a week between its conclusion and Election Day. If the penultimate flurry of campaigning is any indication, it could be an interesting, perhaps surprising, week. (See related story on page 24.)