What Will Ross Perot Do Next?

From the merely eccentric to the downright bizarre seems to be only half a step for Ross Perot. The populist billionaire last week came up with a new explanation for why he had abandoned his initial presidential campaign on July 16: he wanted to save his daughter Carolyn from a smear. Seems he got wind from three sources -- two unnamed, one a frequent promoter of conspiracy theories -- of a Republican plot to portray his daughter as a lesbian by circulating a doctored photograph, then to "disrupt" her Aug. 23 wedding by means unspecified. By Oct. 1, with Carolyn married, Perot presumably figured it was safe to get back into the race.

It all seemed most unlikely. Noting the army of guards Perot employs, a skeptical former business associate remarked, "The guy's got more security around his family than the Kremlin. And he can't protect a wedding?" Perot in fact admitted he had no proof, and White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater quickly compared him to someone who had "latched on to UFO theories." Perot does have a history of scenting conspiracies everywhere, and one of his suspicions seems to have inspired a questionable FBI sting. After Perot complained to Dallas police about an alleged Republican plot to wiretap him, Jim Oberwetter, head of President Bush's Texas campaign, was approached by an FBI agent posing as a cowboy. The agent offered to sell a tape of Perot phone conversations. Oberwetter spurned him.

Perot's vagaries stopped but did not reverse his meteoric rise in the polls. Several tracking surveys showed his support at 16%, down a bit from around 20% but still more than enough to make Perot's wild-card effect on the campaign both important and unpredictable. The Texan is putting on a last-gasp TV advertising blitz like none ever seen before. His campaign has spent just under $60 million so far, and that figure will grow sharply in the final week.

For the two main candidates, the campaign end game seemed likely to underline one of the oldest -- and most overlooked -- truisms of American politics: a presidential ballot is not really a national vote but a combination of 50 separate state elections. In one Gallup/CNN/USA Today tracking poll, Bush surged to a statistical tie, pulling 40% to Clinton's 41%. Other polls showed the Democrat's lead around seven points, but all indicated it was narrowing. Bush reacted by slamming harder than ever on "character" issues. Clinton hit back personally as he had not before, saying Bush was the one not worthy of trust. Bush's great problem, though, is that state-by-state surveys show Clinton with so big a lead in electoral votes that the President would have to win just about every doubtful state to remain in the White House. While that could still happen, it seems more likely that Clinton would parlay a narrow victory in the popular vote into a comfortable margin in the electoral college. (See related stories beginning on page 28.)