Saddam Tests the Limits of Victory

THE FIRST BOMBS ACCOMPLISHED LITTLE, SO U.S. warships on Sunday fired Tomahawk cruise missiles at an Iraqi industrial park near Baghdad that Washington said housed a nuclear facility. Then came more bombs on Monday and Tuesday, dropped on missile batteries and air defenses in or near the northern no-fly zone that protects Kurds against Saddam Hussein's warplanes. On Tuesday Iraq declared a "cease-fire" as a gesture of "good intentions" toward incoming U.S. President Bill Clinton. It claimed to be sticking to it even after U.S. jets, fired on while flying through the northern exclusion zone both Thursday and Friday, attacked radar sites and missile emplacements with HARM missiles and cluster bombs. Saddam's intentions had become more menacing by Saturday night, when Iraqi antiaircraft batteries fired on three U.S. fighters patrolling in the southern no-fly zone. The pilots returned fire and made it safely back to the U.S.S. Kitty Hawk.

Victory? Only one bringing to mind King Pyrrhus' lament after a battle against the Romans: "Another such victory and we are undone." Saddam's losses were relatively minor: some sophisticated milling and welding equipment, but only antiquated military gear. For that price, he exposed new strains in the U.S.-led alliance against him. Russia, Egypt and other Arab states expressed misgivings; France, though it participated in some bombing, criticized the missile attack. Paris seemed wary of antagonizing its allies in the Arab world, and Moscow appeared to be afraid of Russian nationalists who deplore any kowtowing to the U.S.; those concerns could inhibit future action. As the Saturday skirmish proved, Saddam can provoke a crisis anytime he wants to make another try at weakening the restraints imposed on him after the Gulf War. Maintaining those restraints and the alliance, and if possible regaining the initiative, are among Clinton's most exasperating tests. (See related story on page 49.)