A Fragile New Hope for Peace

ALLIED LEADERS WERE DISCUSSING INTERVENTION in Bosnia last week when the commanders of the rebel Serb forces and the Bosnian army unexpectedly signed a cease-fire, to take effect on May 9. Suddenly, there was hope that the intervention no one really wants would not be necessary. But would the truce hold? Many such agreements have been made and broken during the past year. Only a week ago, Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic had signed the Vance- Owen peace plan. Just as Secretary of State Warren Christopher switched gears in Europe, from lobbying allies on a plan to bomb the Serbs to discussing the formation of a U.N. peacekeeping force, the Bosnian Serb parliament scuttled Vance-Owen, 51-2. All the disagreements that a peace plan might have papered over were back. France and Britain, with troops on the ground, abhor air strikes just slightly less than permitting Bosnian government troops to receive arms, which they fear will only expand the war. Congressional leaders pledged to support Clinton, if he could convince the American people; the polls indicated they needed convincing.

Critics said Clinton lacked the leadership George Bush showed in shepherding the country and its allies toward Desert Storm. But the situation in Bosnia is fundamentally different -- and President Bush, after all, was in no hurry to send American troops to Bosnia. As Clinton hesitated, lobbying American allies and mulling over his options, General Colin Powell, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, emerged as a key player on Clinton's national security team. Last week, Powell reportedly remarked, "Boy, was the Gulf War easy compared to this." Consensus building is part of leadership. As the Pentagon plotted strikes from Italy and the Adriatic, Clinton said he would seek both U.N. and congressional endorsement for his plans. He is also likely to heed Senator Bob Dole's advice that he hold a national "fireside chat" to explain his decision to the American people once he makes it. (See cover stories beginning on page 26.)