The Retirement Crisis

By Julie Johnson/Washington

The night before David Boren officially declared last week that he will leave the Senate to preside over the University of Oklahoma, he got a congratulatory call from President Clinton. The President was "really happy" for Boren, he said. But Clinton's feelings were probably much more complicated than that. While the President will be sending off an often rebellious Democratic colleague who opposed him on last year's budget bill, Boren could be replaced by an even more consistent foe: a Republican. Coming just eight weeks after Senate majority leader George Mitchell announced that he will not seek another term, Boren's decision is the latest in a string of congressional retirements that are likely to spell trouble for Clinton in the midterm congressional elections in November. Boren is the sixth Democratic Senator to retire voluntarily this year.

Hours before Clinton called Boren, five of the President's senior political advisers -- armed with charts, maps and polling data -- trundled into the Oval Office to illustrate the extent of the danger. With 22 Democratic Senate seats now up for election, compared with 13 in the G.O.P., the Democrats' 56-to-44 majority is in grave danger. With the sudden loss of proven vote getters such as Mitchell and Boren, the Democratic sure-bet states of Maine and Oklahoma are thrown into the toss-up column. As a result, political strategists can envision an outcome that could leave Democrats with nominal but not effective control of the Senate.

In the House, where Democrats hold a 256-to-176 edge over the G.O.P., the outlook is better for the Administration, but not by much. History is not on the side of the Democrats. Only once in this century, when F.D.R. was in the White House, has a Democratic President managed to pick up seats in the House during a midterm election.

To minimize the losses, Clinton plans to hit the fund-raising trail, where an appearance by the President can generate $1 million or more in local campaign donations. Clinton will be especially active in states where Republicans have recruited strong senatorial candidates. Among them: Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Tennessee. The First Lady will conduct her own tour, as will Al Gore, who is already stumping for Democrats once a week.

Even with a Democratic-controlled Congress, Clinton learned in the first 100 days that it takes only 41 unified Senate Republicans to slam the brakes on popular legislation. And they can usually count on a few renegade Southern Democrats to join them. The G.O.P. sank Clinton's $16.3 billion economic- stimulus plan last year, routinely stalled or blocked high-profile nominees and delayed passage of bills like the Family and Medical Leave Act, the Brady handgun-control bill and a measure to ease voter registration.

Wielding the power of filibuster, Senate Republicans have on 47 occasions since 1992 forced Senate majority leader Mitchell to round up a daunting 60 votes, necessarily including a number of opposition Republicans, to shut off debate. At stake now is Clinton's legislative agenda for the second half of his presidency. What the White House realizes, and hopes to avoid, is that such a stalemate could sour Clinton's own re-election prospects in 1996.