Invasion Target: Haiti

By Mark Thompson/Washington

The U.S. invasion of Haiti would commence not with the blazing of guns but with the quiet ripples of Navy SEALS making their way ashore. Under cover of darkness -- a key ally in the Pentagon's invasion plan -- they would drift apart and stealthily make their way to the country's major airport, on the outskirts of Port-au-Prince. Their mission: to make sure no surprises were in store for the thousands of U.S. combat troops that would follow. "One truck with four flat tires on the runway can cause problems," a military officer says. "So can 2,000 Haitians with loaded rifles."

Once the SEALS signaled the all clear, the first public evidence that an American-led invasion was under way would be the drone of Navy and Marine helicopters ferrying combat troops to the airport from ships offshore. If all went as planned, they would quickly seize control and flash the green light for troops from the 82nd and 101st Airborne divisions arriving from bases in North Carolina and Kentucky. At the same time, Marines would arrive to reinforce the U.S. embassy in Port-au-Prince.

The invasion ultimately would require 15,000 to 20,000 U.S. troops and a six-month American presence, according to Leon Edney, the retired Navy admiral who, as commander of all U.S. Atlantic forces, was responsible for Haiti when President Jean-Bertrand Aristide was overthrown nearly three years ago. Haiti's military "hardly warrants the name," a Pentagon planner says; its 7,500 troops are ill-trained and poorly equipped, and they are expected to offer little overt resistance. In all likelihood U.S. forces would quickly take control of the handful of Haitian armored vehicles, planes, boats and guns. "The Haitians will be lucky to get 1,000 or 1,500 troops to respond," predicts Georges Fauriol, a Haitian expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Of greater concern inside the Pentagon is the possibility that Haitian soldiers would turn to guerrilla warfare, "picking off our guys one or two at a time," in the words of one officer.

In the invasion's first hours, Marines would seal the capital's port and perhaps take control of Cap Haitien, a major town on the country's northern coast. Pentagon officials would be nervously watching to see if Haitians threatened Americans there and in the seaside towns of Port Salut and Jeremie. In fact, Pentagon officials say they may seek White House approval for a pre- invasion incursion to evacuate all Americans who want to leave Haiti; they would be picked up at preselected rendezvous points. Such a ploy could have an added bonus: by showing that the Americans are serious, it might convince Haiti's military leaders to leave office before the shooting starts.

A senior Pentagon official believes that the U.S. would target only the three top members of the ruling military for ouster: Lieut. General Raoul Cedras, Port-au-Prince police chief Michel Francois, and Philippe Biamby, the army chief of staff. "There's a general consensus here," the Pentagon official says, "that if we cut off the head, the monster will die." Whether the trio would be imprisoned or allowed to flee remains an open question. "We can take the thugs out easily," says Edney. "You never can say with no casualties, but I think we could come very close."

Only a third of the U.S. troops involved would actually carry out the invasion; the rest would arrive in the following days to begin the long process of rebuilding Haiti's government. That number could fall quickly, however, as peacekeeping forces from other nations in the hemisphere arrived. But some Pentagon officials are leery of such rosy forecasts. "There are too many things that can go wrong to call it a cakewalk," a Pentagon official says, plainly peeved at suggestions that this military undertaking would be a cinch.

Although Pentagon officials say they have received no invasion orders from the White House, they will be ready to carry them out as early as this week, following the arrival of a four-ship flotilla in the waters off Haiti. This amphibious ready group (ARG) carries 2,000 Marines and packs a tremendous wallop. The armada includes the Inchon, a helicopter carrier; the Portland and the Trenton, which can deliver troops to shore by boats and helicopters; and the Spartanburg County, designed to put tanks and other heavy equipment ashore. They join another helicopter carrier, the Wasp, with 650 Marines aboard, already stationed in the area. Along with combat-ready Marines, these vessels are crammed with an arsenal of armed helicopters, howitzers and armored vehicles. "Ships take days to get to Haiti, but airplanes take only hours," one war planner says. "With these ships in the neighborhood, we've got enough to invade. We're good to go."