The Political Interest

By Michael Kramer

Now let us finish the job." Reduced to a bumper sticker, that's what the Republicans think they will be offering in 1996. And if the new, G.O.P.-controlled Congress can deliver the change its leaders promise, voters may well be ready for a Republican President. But who? The list of those who think they can take Bill Clinton may grow to phone-book size, but here's a morning line on the early contenders:

The Insider-Reformers: After grousing for years about gridlock, the public wants Congress to produce the reform Clinton hasn't. "For once," says former Republican National Committee chairman Rich Bond, who is much in demand as a strategist by almost all the wannabes, "something positive may come from the Hill. If it does, Bob Dole will be credited for much of it." While many of the potential candidates can raise modest amounts of money, Dole is one of the few who can garner the $20 million necessary to take him through the early primaries without mortgaging his house. His failures in 1980 and 1988 may actually help. Ronald Reagan and George Bush showed that Republican voters like to reward candidates who have the gumption to run again after losing previous efforts. Dole's acerbic tongue has earned him a reputation for being mean-spirited, but his support for the less fortunate is genuine. During a 1988 Republican debate, when his competitors swiped at AIDS victims for having weak values, Dole replied simply, "There's something called compassion."

The tension between Dole and one of his more formidable prospective rivals, Senator Phil Gramm, is surfacing already. Dole believes "government does a lot of good things." Gramm warns that Republicans must be "truer to our less-government philosophy than in the past." Dole has been notably conciliatory toward Clinton; Gramm rejects compromise: "Why should we go halfway in the wrong direction?" he asks.

The substantive divide may be even greater than the stylistic one. Gramm and Newt Gingrich, who may run for President even though he's just won the House speakership, will push the House Republicans' "Contract with America," which has a heavy emphasis on supply-side economics. Dole disdained Reaganomics and seems equally unenthusiastic about the contract. "If ((its central features)) come to the Senate," he said last week, "I assume we'd end up voting on them." As for the contract's insistence that the budget can be balanced in five years even if taxes are cut and defense spending is increased, Dole diplomatically says, "It would be difficult."

Like Dole, Gramm is an ace organizer. He already has $6 million on hand from his last run for the Senate in Texas. But he could end up like John Connally in 1980: great lines, a lot of money, no votes. Count Dole as the favorite, but watch for the fight inside as the battle to define responsible reform takes shape.

The Outside Moderates: Two newly re-elected Governors, William Weld in Massachusetts and Pete Wilson in California, have proved that government works. Both are fiscal conservatives and social moderates. They are pro- choice. "Most of the possibilities will be cookie-cutter candidates running to the right to get well with the Christian Coalition, which makes up about 25% of the nominating electorate," says G.O.P. consultant Roger Stone. "There's room for a pro-choice Republican like Weld or Wilson, and the social issues have always been big in the primaries." But Wilson could have trouble even at home. California conservatives supported his re-election against Kathleen Brown, but they've never trusted him (he raised taxes!), and they might prefer a more rightist candidate. Weld, meanwhile, could be damaged if he doesn't finish near the top in neighboring New Hampshire, where his support for gay rights could hurt him.

Lamar Alexander is another can-do centrist. A pro-choicer, he had a good record as Tennessee's Governor and a better one as George Bush's Education Secretary. He quietly won support during the 1994 season, but his ability to raise serious money remains questionable. His message too is problematic. Sending power and responsibility back to the states is politically attractive, but if Congress shows it can produce, Dole will have the better of the argument. A new entrant, Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter, will visit Iowa and New Hampshire this week. Specter too is pro-choice, but his intense grilling of Anita Hill during the Clarence Thomas hearings could serve to hobble him.

Even if none of these four captures the nomination, their strength could moderate the party's platform, ensure a centrist running mate and further complicate Clinton's re-election calculations. "If the Dems can't label us as the antiabortion party," says Stone, "that robs them big time."

The Former Insiders: The resumes of James Baker and Dick Cheney can't be beat. Only Alexander has worked as hard as Cheney laying the groundwork for 1996. But the former Defense Secretary is the very definition of dull, and as one big-state G.O.P. chairman says, "We saw with Bush that you need as much spark as heft if you hope to win." Cheney makes Baker look charismatic, and this ex-everything is a world-class fund raiser. Both Cheney and Baker will share a slogan -- "Bring Back the Grownups" -- but since their best credentials are outside the realm of domestic politics, they might not triumph unless a diplomatic or military crisis causes the party to value their foreign policy experience more highly. "Maybe the Islamic fundamentalists could take over the Middle East oil fields," jokes a Cheney friend, "or Russia's elections could be pushed up before the scheduled June 1996 date, and Zhirinovsky could win."

The Preacher: Jack Kemp showed his independence when he opposed the anti- immigrant Proposition 187 in California, which Wilson used successfully as the centerpiece of his campaign. If that doesn't set him apart, consider Kemp's opposition to the "Contract with America" call for a balanced-budget amendment to the Constitution. Kemp still believes in the supply-side notion that only a rising economy can produce real growth and balance the nation's books at the same time.

Kemp still forms fists with his words, and his call to open the party to minorities is more than mere rhetoric. A self-described "bleeding-heart conservative," Kemp is serious about appealing to blacks and Hispanics and about an urban strategy worthy of the term. "Getting minority votes is possible for Republicans," he says, pointing out that George W. Bush won 15% of Texas' black vote last week. "If his father had done that well in 1992," he says, "he'd still be President." Kemp is truly fearful of where the party may be headed. "There could be a real move to take 187 beyond California and make it part of the 1996 national platform," he says. "That's a slippery slope toward something like what happened in Germany when the Nazis made the Jews wear yellow stars." On the stump in Birmingham, Alabama, two weeks ago, that kind of talk drew tepid applause -- but lots of praise for Kemp's courage. Could it carry him to the prize? Kemp himself seems to doubt it. He talks about "fighting the good fight for the party's soul" and says he "feels like John the Baptist."

The Kid: If Kemp is wrong in thinking he represents America's core values, and the party seeks a candidate who favors a different set, Dan Quayle could be the one. At 47, the former Vice President is the youngest prospective challenger and the far right's current darling. Pat Robertson and Pat Buchanan proved that Quayle's brand of politics can appeal to some Republicans -- but probably not to enough for him to win the nomination, even though only Dole topped him as the preferred G.O.P. candidate when Republicans were queried as they left the polls last Tuesday.

Against these pretenders is Bill Clinton -- or someone else. Almost a third of those Democrats questioned in the latest TIME/CNN poll itch for a new standard bearer. No major party leader has yet said Clinton should quit -- as the President's former mentor, Arkansas Senator J. William Fulbright, suggested to Harry Truman after the G.O.P. sweep in the 1946 midterm elections -- but the President will probably face a challenge from Jesse Jackson, which would hardly surprise. From the center could come real trouble. Senator Bob Kerrey, who lost in the primaries to Clinton two years ago, last week called the midterm elections a "severe, sharp and obvious repudiation of the President." Kerrey's co-chairmanship of the national commission studying entitlement programs could provide the platform for another try -- but he'll make noise even if he doesn't run. Kerrey views himself as an unappreciated straight talker. Everyone running this year, he says, "was more concerned with re-election than with telling the truth."

Oh, yes, don't forget Ross Perot, who had mixed success with the Republican and Democratic candidates he supported last week. Perot says the Republicans should have a chance to set matters right but suggests he might be back if they don't. And then there is Colin Powell, who distinguished himself in the Haiti negotiations in September and continues to score high in the polls. As a candidate, however, Powell would suddenly face a barrage of questions about issues he's never had to address, not the least of which is what party he belongs to. And then there is . . . well, who knows who else might decide to run? Nelson Rockefeller once explained that he was a politician, and that "real success in politics means only one thing." Everyone, said Rocky, "wants to be President. Don't they?"