THE PENTAGON'S CONTINGENCY PLAN

By Mark Thompson/Washington

Deep inside the Pentagon, the 1,500-page plan to pull 25,000 U.N. peacekeepers out of Bosnia is known as Op Plan 40-104. In the Pentagon's public-affairs suites, the plan is known as Operation Determined Effort. But some American troops deride it as Dunkirk 2. Last week's fall of Srebrenica increased the probability that the plan will become a reality.

American military personnel are already in Zagreb, setting up the communications network necessary for the highly choreographed departure, while U.S. Army troops in Germany and Italy have been training for it for weeks. An allied force of up to 83,000 would spend as many as 22 weeks on the mission. However, only about half of those troops -- and some 10,000 of the 25,000 Americans expected to be a part of the plan -- would actually set foot on Bosnian soil. Most of the rest would be logistical units in Croatia and Italy and afloat in the Adriatic. Much of the 22 weeks would be spent marshaling troops in the region until there is sufficient force to move into the Balkans without undue fear of ambush. Amid widespread attacks and sniping, the withdrawal force could be in Bosnia as long as 10 weeks. If there were no opposition, the time on the ground could be far less.

The allies' aversion to conducting that kind of mission in the winter means a decision to withdraw must be made in the next month. But weather is only one of many prospective problems. All the armed factions -- Bosnian, Croat and Serb -- have attacked the peacekeepers in the past, and could assault the retreating troops. The two-lane roads thread through mountains, giving an edge to those seeking to frustrate the pullout. Masses of refugees, fearing slaughter once the U.N. forces leave, would also hamper an operation. "The Muslims know that once the pullout is over, genocide is just around the corner," a Pentagon official says. "Hundreds of thousands will jam the roads, impeding our exit -- it's just going to be chaos." Serbs and Croats might also be eager to strike and plunder U.N. weapons.

U.S. officers expect that some peacekeepers will be seized as hostages, greatly complicating the pullout, but the rescuers won't face such a fate. "The forces we send in there are going to be fully armed combat forces in overwhelming power," Defense Secretary William Perry promises. "Anybody who attempts to take hostages is going to be taking on a very considerable undertaking."

The rescue force won't move inland to Bosnia until the peacekeepers have assembled at a handful of major points. "We don't want to send 90 of our guys out to rescue two or three peacekeepers," a NATO planner says. The allies most probably would employ a "leapfrogging" withdrawal strategy, in which highly mobile nato units would hop from peak to peak, guarding the withdrawal of the U.N. peacekeepers winding along roads in the valleys below. They will head west for Adriatic ports or east to Belgrade, assuming Serbia approves. While the allies want to bring tanks and other vehicles with them, heavy fire could compel them to destroy the weapons in place.

The Pentagon has no enthusiasm for the pullout, and officials hope the desperate consequences it would have for civilians will inhibit politicians from ever ordering the exit. "The plan is limited to the withdrawal of unprofor forces," says General John Shalikashvili, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. "It does not provide for humanitarian or refugee support either during or after the withdrawal operation."