HE'S OUT

By Anthony Spaeth

"Wu expelled." the words flashed across presidential aide Mike McCurry's pager on Thursday afternoon as he was on his way to the funeral of one of the U.S. diplomats killed in Bosnia two weeks ago. At the chapel, McCurry sought out Anthony Lake, the National Security Adviser, and showed him the message. Lake raised his eyebrows, pleased and surprised.

On June 19, Harry Wu, the human-rights activist who spent 19 years in Chinese prisons and is now an American citizen, had been arrested by the Chinese on charges of espionage, and he came to symbolize the increasingly strained relationship between China and the U.S. The Clinton Administration knew that after a four-hour trial on Wednesday, Wu was sentenced to a jail term of 15 years and expulsion from the country, but his sudden departure startled just about everyone, including Peter Tarnoff, the Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs who was heading to Beijing with Wu high on his agenda.

Rushed from Wuhan Intermediate People's Court only a few hours after the verdict, Wu arrived in San Francisco about 8 p.m. Thursday and proceeded to his home in nearby Milpitas, California. There, looking frail, he spoke with a parade of reporters over the next few days. In an interview with TIME, he described the fierce gamesmanship between him and his captors. "I was in a small room, only 4 sq m [43 sq. ft.]. These young guards were with me all the time." To gain the tiniest measure of privacy, he shamed them into letting him close the door of the toilet (though they peered through a peephole) and stared at them in the mirror over a small desk until "they think I use the mirror to watch them, so they remove it." He then began writing tiny notes to record the details of what would become 66 days in captivity. Some hidden in his shoe were found; others were secreted in the center margins of a dictionary that he had managed to keep. "I confessed to my wife," he said, "'I didn't think about you a lot. Thinking of you, I'd go mad. I had to prepare for my death.'"

Wu's release removed an "obstacle"--as President Bill Clinton put it--to improving relations with China, which many think have reached their lowest depths since 1979, when the two countries first exchanged ambassadors. Relations never fully recovered from the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown, and have been battered by tussles over human rights, weapons sales, nuclear proliferation, Tibet, copyright violations and China's failed bid to join the World Trade Organization, which the U.S. opposed. On May 22 came a seismic jolt: the Clinton Administration gave permission to Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui to visit his American alma mater, Cornell University. China was stunned. The U.S. does not recognize Taiwan as an independent country, and the Chinese perceived the O.K. for Lee's visit as a step in that direction.

In a show of strength against Taiwan, China in mid-July fired a series of medium- and long-range missiles into the East China Sea less than 100 miles north of the island and conducted a set of sea-air military exercises from Aug. 15 to Aug. 25 in the same area. China's state media also launched sulfurous invective against Lee, and the country recalled its ambassador from Washington and delayed approval of the new American ambassador.

In June, in the middle of the building tension, the Chinese caught Wu. Using false identities and hidden cameras, he had previously managed to film cruel practices in Chinese labor camps, and he was returning to document more abuses when he was arrested. But another factor made Wu's detention a problem for Beijing: Hillary Rodham Clinton. She had long expressed her intention to attend a U.N. conference on women that will start in Beijing next week. A visit by Mrs. Clinton would lend prestige to the conference and China, but Administration officials were concerned that by attending while Wu was detained, she might send the wrong signal. It was clear in both Beijing and Washington that Mrs. Clinton would not attend the women's conference unless Wu was released. "The two issues became intertwined," says McCurry.

On Aug. 18, China informed the U.S. that Wu's trial would take place later in the month. Wednesday's closed proceedings were attended by Justice Ministry officials, a U.S. consular officer and witnesses from labor camps (where Wu allegedly stole documents). Though Wu apparently made a confession accepted by the court, sources in the U.S. say it was probably a tactic. "Harry Wu understands the Chinese system extremely well," says one. "A sign of sincere remorse goes a long way toward mitigating punishment." With Wu's release, Hillary Clinton will go to Beijing, but Administration officials insist there was no specific quid pro quo.

U.S.-China relations remain contentious nonetheless. The biggest problem is Taiwan, which China regards as a renegade province that must rejoin the mainland. The U.S. has a nuanced policy, confirmed under three declarations, whereby it recognizes the position that there is "one China" but does not explicitly endorse Beijing's territorial claims to Taiwan. The U.S. acknowledges Beijing as China's legal government but, under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, maintains unofficial cultural and commercial ties with Taiwan.

In fact, though, Washington respects Taiwan as a political entity that has achieved remarkable economic success and, under Lee Teng-hui, has transformed itself from an authoritarian regime into an impressive democracy. Moreover, the Taiwan Relations Act allows the U.S. to provide "arms of a defensive character." If China attacked Taiwan, the U.S. would regard this as an act of unforgivable aggression. As in all triangular relationships, keeping everyone happy is difficult, and the arrangement was strained when Clinton granted Lee a visa. Some analysts suggest that Lee's visit probably had more to do with Clinton's desire to appease anti-China hawks in Congress than with diplomacy, but to the Chinese, it represented support for an independent Taiwan.

This was particularly the view of the military, which accused President Jiang Zemin and his Foreign Ministry of a profound blunder in predicting that Clinton would not give Lee a visa. China's civilian leadership is increasingly wary of the military as Deng Xiaoping's health deteriorates and various forces in the government struggle for power. These circumstances made Jiang and Premier Li Peng extremely careful in dealing with Wu. "The matter had to be taken to the Politburo standing committee for deliberation and decision," says a government official in Beijing. "It took this long because they had to reach absolute consensus. Everyone is very cautious. No one wants to take the blame in case things go wrong."

Pressured by the military, Jiang had to be firm on Taiwan. "Chinese leaders can get good mileage at home by acting tough abroad," says Orville Schell, a California China scholar. The missile tests were intended to shake up the Taiwanese and persuade Lee to stand down from his party's nomination for the island's first direct presidential election in March. The intimidation didn't work. At last week's congress of the ruling Kuo mintang, Lee declared his intention to run for the nomination, which he will receive on Aug. 31. Lee is leading in the polls, and so will seemingly remain a thorn in China's side for six more years.

Releasing Wu was a useful palliative to ease the ill will between the U.S. and China. But tensions remain in the triangle. Chinese and U.S. attempts to mend fences are unlikely to be effective until China lowers its level of hostility toward Taiwan. And that does not appear probable in the near future.

--Reported by Hannah Bloch/Washington, Sandra Burton/Hong Kong, Jaime FlorCruz/Beijing, Dennis Engbarth/Taipei and David S. Jackson/Milpitas

With reporting by HANNAH BLOCH/WASHINGTON, SANDRA BURTON/ HONG KONG, JAIME FLORCRUZ/BEIJING, DENNIS ENGBARTH/ TAIPEI AND DAVID S. JACKSON/MILPITAS