CUTTING OFF THE HEAD

By Bruce W. Nelan

For the Russian Air Force, it was the stuff of instant legend. The elusive rebel in crisp combat fatigues drives into an open field under a starry Chechen sky to speak on his satellite phone. As he talks, an unseen Russian plane far above is hunting him. It locks in on his satellite signal, launches its missiles and blasts the field. Jokhar Dudayev, the flamboyant and impassioned leader of Chechnya's rebellion against Russia, is dead.

Of course, it might not really have happened that way. This was the version put out on Russian television, but Dudayev has used his satellite phone often, and one mystery of the war has been that the Russians have never tracked its signal to target him. There was no explanation of how they suddenly managed it. The Russian army commander in the region, General Vyacheslav Tikhomirov, gave a completely different explanation. After first denying that there had been any fighting, he then claimed his forces did fire shells at the Chechens in self-defense, and that one of these must have killed Dudayev.

However it happened, though, Dudayev is gone. Yeltsin has said publicly that his re-election could depend on the outcome of the Chechen war; and in the short term, the elimination of the charismatic rebel, who had turned himself into a personal nemesis for Yeltsin, may look like a success and give the President a boost. In the longer run, the abrupt end of Dudayev's one-man leadership could result in splits and instability among the Chechen rebel commanders and make a settlement even harder to reach. Still, Yeltsin will no doubt be glad Dudayev is finished. The dapper, mustached former Soviet Air Force general had the infuriating habit of outwitting and outlasting Russian troops, turning up on television and giving interviews to inquiring correspondents.

"With or without Dudayev," Yeltsin said last week, "we shall wind up everything in Chechnya with peace." That still seems a far-off objective. Yeltsin's March 31 announcement of a cease-fire and an attempt at new negotiations brought no apparent slowdown in the fighting. Nevertheless, early last week with visiting President Bill Clinton at his side, Yeltsin insisted that "military actions are not going on" in Chechnya. Was he lying or out of touch with reality?

Perhaps neither of those extremes. Yeltsin had issued hold-back orders but gave the military considerable latitude in how to carry them out. As an administration official says, "I don't think Yeltsin is lying--from his point of view. He wouldn't lie to Bill Clinton. From his own perspective, it's a matter of what comprises a military operation. The way he sees it, the Russians aren't planning any big operations; the troops are just defending themselves." However Yeltsin views the conflict, it still looks very much like a war. Two weeks ago, Chechen rebels ambushed a Russian convoy and killed more than 70 soldiers. Last week they attacked Russian positions with rifles and grenades dozens of times each day, and the Russians responded with artillery and air strikes.

Yeltsin had called for contacts, through middlemen, with Dudayev. Even though the Chechen chief is dead and the fighting continues, such feelers with rebel leaders are still possible. But for the moment the outlook is not good. Dudayev's successor seems to be his vice president, Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, who has a reputation as an ideologue and a believer in war to the end. Russian human-rights advocate Sergei Kovalyov, who has spent months in Chechnya, calls the new chief "a fanatic."

Some Russians expect Yandarbiyev to be forced out soon by another strongman, possibly the battlefield commander Shamil Basayev, who was named last week to handle any future parleys with Moscow. But if the Chechens stand firm on Dudayev's basic demand--full independence--there will be little to discuss with the Kremlin. In spite of Yeltsin's peace maneuvers, it seems likely he will carry the burden of Chechnya into the election.

--Reported by Sally B. Donnelly/Moscow and Lewis M. Simons/Washington

With reporting by SALLY B. DONNELLY/MOSCOW AND LEWIS M. SIMONS/WASHINGTON