WHY THE BIG U.S. BUILDUP IN THE GULF IS SO RISKY

By Kevin Fedarko

I don't have any misgivings," Ted Fennig of Greendale, Wisconsin, said last week. Fennig's son, Technical Sergeant Patrick P. Fennig, 34, an F-15 crew chief, was killed in the explosion at the Khobar Towers compound. "None of us," Fennig said, "have a problem with the mission." The families of other service members who died echoed that sentiment, and U.S. officials insisted that the act of terror would not deter the U.S. from fulfilling its mission in Saudi Arabia and around the Persian Gulf. In the aftermath of last week's deaths, however, it is appropriate to ask what exactly that mission is and whether the U.S. is carrying it out in the most sensible manner.

The specific role of the Air Force in Dhahran is to enforce the no-fly zone imposed on southern Iraq after the 1991 Gulf War. But more generally, America's mission in the Persian Gulf is to protect the flow of oil. The gulf states produce two-thirds of the world's supply, so their stability is vital to the global economy. As the U.S. sees it, the biggest threats to that stability are Iraq and Iran, two powerful countries with ambitions to someday dominate the region. The U.S. policy of keeping both Iraq and Iran in check is known as dual containment.

To pursue that policy in the aftermath of the Gulf War, the U.S. has dramatically increased its presence in the region--indeed, the gulf is the only major theater in the world where the American military is expanding. Before the war there were rarely more than 1,000 American troops in Saudi Arabia at any one time and even fewer in any neighboring country. Today there are about 20,000 U.S. troops in the area. About half are afloat in the gulf, while Air Force, Army and Marine personnel operate out of four bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia (there may be as many as four air bases in Saudi Arabia alone, but the U.S. refuses to give the exact number). A naval station in Bahrain, headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, is host to 32 ships, including a carrier deck full of warplanes. Kuwait and Qatar have each agreed to store enough armor, artillery and supplies for an entire brigade of U.S. soldiers; a similar accord with the United Arab Emirates is in the works. And finally, the U.S. is constructing a "noose" of five air bases around the region that could help stifle any provocations on the part of Iran and Iraq.

The dual-containment policy has critics--some European countries wonder why the U.S. does not engage Iran and Iraq as it does Syria, whose regime is equally brutal--but few would dispute the strategic value of protecting oil. The question, though, is whether the U.S. has become so aggressive in its buildup that it risks undermining the gulf countries even as it protects them. The U.S. tries to maintain a low profile, but as the Dhahran bombing and the one in Riyadh that preceded it both tragically indicate, the presence of U.S. soldiers incites radical Islamists. Many Arabs who are not extremists are also offended by the American military, which they view as an infidel force occupying Islam's holy land. U.S. troops further provoke internal agitation because they are seen as props for authoritarian and corrupt regimes.

Saudi Arabia and the other gulf states may still be a long way from becoming like Iran under the Shah, but the U.S. plans to stay in the gulf a long time. If more incidents like that at Dhahran are not to occur and if the region is to remain stable, the U.S. must act with care as it rapidly expands its permanent presence. Is the U.S. properly sophisticated about these matters? Comments after the bombing by General Kurt Anderson, commander of the Joint Task Force Southwest Asia, are not encouraging. Asked why Americans were attacked, Anderson said, "I can't tell you why somebody would want to target us." Further questioned about Islamic antipathy for the American presence in Saudi Arabia, Anderson said, "I can tell you my experience throughout all of Saudi Arabia. We are welcome. We are welcome as friends. We are welcome as allies." Not by everyone, evidently.

--By Kevin Fedarko, Reported by Scott Macleod/Dhahran, J.F.O. McAllister with Clinton and Mark Thompson/Washington

With reporting by SCOTT MACLEOD/DHAHRAN, J.F.O. MCALLISTER WITH CLINTON AND MARK THOMPSON/WASHINGTON