WHAT DOLE WON'T CUT

By John F. Dickerson/Washington

In the six weeks since Bob Dole announced his economic plan, he has been attacked for not being specific enough. But that's not fair. The Republican candidate has been quite specific about both the programs he would enlarge and the ones he is not willing to touch to pay for his across-the-board 15% income-tax cut. To Californians he promised more B-2s, and in New Mexico he assured Energy Department workers that they would be spared the downsizing he has planned for that agency. Last week he was at it again, offering an expanded version of the G.I. Bill and promising that veterans' benefits will be spared.

Leaving an audience with their pockets full of promises is a talent for which President Bill Clinton has no equal. But Dole is offering to spend money on top of a tax break that will cost $551 billion over six years. Little wonder that polls show most voters doubt Dole can keep his promise to balance the budget and cut taxes. Especially if he insists on being "faithful to Americans in need."

Dole advisers say Americans are simply unfamiliar with the plan's details. But judging from the Dole math so far, the campaign might hope that voters don't look too closely. To find the $757 billion needed to finance his tax cuts and balance the budget in six years, Dole calls on $147 billion from supply-side activity and an additional $217 billion in spending reductions on top of the $393 billion proposed in the Republican budget last June. But unlike his colleagues in Newt Gingrich's Congress who dared propose cuts in Medicare, Dole does not plan to meddle with entitlements. And on defense he's promising to spend "too much" rather than too little. So what's left on the table accounts for only about 23% of the budget. Analysts at the nonpartisan Concord Coalition, co-founded by Dole adviser Warren Rudman, the former Senator from New Hampshire, predict that by the year 2002, this slice of the pie will have to be slashed more than 40% in order to meet Dole's objectives.

This leaves Dole with some very tough choices. What makes the cutting so difficult is that many of the programs in this category are close to Dole's heart and necessary for his political success. Will he cut the fbi or federal prisons 40% if he plans to deliver on his promise that "the lives of violent criminals are going to be hell"? Will he "make the drug war priority No. 1 once again" by carving 40% of the Drug Enforcement Administration? Surely not, but if those agencies are to be spared, then what others will take the blow? The following chart illustrates where Dole's fiscal plans and campaign promises could leave the Federal Government: