CAN BIBI SURVIVE?

By Bruce W. Nelan

In Israel, politics is often the continuation of war by other means. But in Benjamin Netanyahu, the country has a leader fated to ceaseless battle. Time and again in the short 11 months of his tenure, this Prime Minister has come out fighting in one controversy after another, many of his own making. While the rest of the world well knows his combative approach to the Middle East peace process, most of Netanyahu's workaday struggles are more personal and partisan--and just as politically costly. He has squabbled not just with peace advocates and Jewish settlers but also with his army commanders, the heads of the security services, the universities, the press and even his own government partners and Likud colleagues. When he needs it most, will enough support be left?

Last week calamity struck Netanyahu again, not in the form of high statecraft but as a squalid, small-bore political scandal that threatened to bring down his government and destroy his career. Like all practitioners of the hardball bargain and the back-room deal, the Prime Minister was genuinely shocked when the law called his behavior into question. After he learned Wednesday evening that national police investigators were recommending criminal indictments against him in addition to three of his closest allies, Netanyahu reportedly blurted to an aide, "What? Have they gone crazy?" Characteristically, he vowed to hang on and fight. On Sunday the Attorney General's office issued a decision in the case, choosing not to indict Netanyahu. However, he remains in trouble up to his belligerent chin.

The so-called Bar-On Affair is as complicated as it is petty and shows how difficult it often is to tell the difference between power plays and sleaze. Back in January, Netanyahu appointed a Likud Party crony named Roni Bar-On Attorney General. He was so manifestly underqualified that his appointment set off a torrent of public criticism, and Bar-On instantly resigned without ever visiting what would have been his office. Two weeks later, an Israeli TV station reported the whole thing had been a secret deal cooked up by Aryeh Deri, political leader of the Orthodox religious party Shas and a partner in Netanyahu's coalition. Deri allegedly demanded that Bar-On be installed as Attorney General or his two party members in the Cabinet would block the government's agreement to pull Israeli troops out of Hebron. The darker side of the deal was that Deri reportedly expected Bar-On to arrange a plea bargain that would painlessly end Deri's long-running trial on bribery and fraud charges.

Netanyahu hotly denied any wrongdoing and demanded a formal investigation. The national police conducted one, interviewing 60 witnesses over 12 weeks. That culminated last week in a 995-page report, which recommends that charges of breach of the public trust, a criminal offense, be brought against Netanyahu, his chief of staff, Avigdor Lieberman, and Justice Minister Tzahi Hanegbi. The investigators also said Deri should be charged with extortion, but they apparently found no compelling evidence against Bar-On, the hapless pivot man.

Attorney General Elyakim Rubinstein spared Netanyahu and Hanegbi but said his office had made no decision on Lieberman and was considering an indictment against Deri for extortion, obstruction of justice and fraud. Why Netanyahu got off the legal hook may be partly explained by chief prober Sando Mazor. He conceded in a covering letter that much of the evidence against Netanyahu came from just one "central witness," who, Israeli press reports say, is Dan Avi-Yitzhak. He was a strong candidate for Attorney General and also happened to be Deri's trial lawyer until Deri forced the Bar-On choice.

Israel's legal system presumes innocence, but in politics there's no such protection. If Netanyahu had become the first Prime Minister ever to be indicted, he would probably have been driven from office, even though the law does not require that he resign. The Knesset could impeach him with 80 votes of the 120 members or could force new elections for parliament and the post of Prime Minister with a simple majority.

Even without legal charges, Netanyahu must wage a fight for survival in the court of public opinion. As he always does when on the defensive, he counterattacked ferociously. While his closest aides floated accusations of police plots, leaks and a political vendetta to reverse the will of the electorate, Netanyahu appeared before the party faithful at Likud headquarters in Tel Aviv. "This government is not going anywhere," he roared. "We are staying in the place where the people and history put us."

The Prime Minister can hardly be certain of that. For starters, individuals--and the opposition Labor Party--have the right to petition the Supreme Court to order a reconsideration of charges against Netanyahu. Smelling blood, Labor politicians are hammering hard on the government's obvious ethical lapses. "He has lost the moral ground to govern Israel," argues aspiring Labor leader Yossi Beilin. "We are now trying to topple the government." Huddling in their party sanctum, Labor bosses have decided to crank up the pressure with pickets and street demonstrations. Shimon Peres, who was hoping to resume national leadership by joining in a unity government with Netanyahu, called for the Prime Minister's immediate resignation and for new elections.

Netanyahu's problems are potentially graver within his own ruling coalition. Even some Likud leaders were visibly cool about supporting Netanyahu in the days immediately following the police report. "He is getting very little backing from his own party," says Gadi Wolfsfeld of Hebrew University, "because he hurt so many people."

The views of some of the smaller party leaders, including former Soviet dissident Natan Sharansky, who is also a voice of conscience in Israel, may prove decisive. These leaders have long warned that they will pull out of the coalition if charges of dirty work are confirmed. The Attorney General's critical portrait of questionable politicking, together with the details in the police report, may be enough to send Sharansky's immigrants' party and the centrist Third Way Party heading for the door. With 11 seats between them, their departure would topple the government, which has a majority of six. "If a harsh report is submitted," says Third Way Knesset member Yehuda Harel, "our tendency is to demand new elections."

Already the government is virtually paralyzed: the only business Netanyahu will be conducting for a while is that of defending himself. Efforts last week by U.S. envoy Dennis Ross to restore the peace process were thoroughly overshadowed by the scandal, and no one expects talks to resume while the legal and political maneuvering consumes Israel's attention. A tainted Netanyahu will be more dependent on his right wing, making agreements with the Palestinians that much harder.

Netanyahu is a slashing, telegenic campaigner, and his opponents do not call him Mr. Sound Bite for nothing. Israel is also a country that believes in the rule of law. Of course, as the police admitted last week, it is hard to be absolute about what is political wheeling and dealing and what is breaking the law. But if enough Israelis conclude that the stench of scandal is too strong, they may be willing to help bring Netanyahu's bare-knuckle career to an end.

--Reported by Dean Fischer/Washington and Scott MacLeod/Jerusalem

With reporting by DEAN FISCHER/WASHINGTON AND SCOTT MACLEOD/JERUSALEM