Waiting for Wal-Mart

By Maryanne Murray Buechner

It's not tough to see why 100 million customers shop at Wal-Mart every week. The nation's top retailer sells everything from sweatpants to string beans, rakes to Ritalin. It keeps its prices low, its shelves stocked and its big, wide aisles peppered with blue-smocked clerks. The company will ring up about $160 billion in domestic sales by year's end, with profits on track to top $5 billion. With that kind of scratch--and a proven knack for giving people what they want--the House That Sam Built seems a shoo-in for success in cyberspace.

So why is Wal-Mart's website so crummy? Product selection has improved recently, but it's still puny. The design is underwhelming; search and navigation tools are weak. And don't try returning something bought online to a store. "It's the biggest toy seller in the country, and its toy site is terrible," says Forrester Research analyst David Cooperstein.

Do not be fooled. Wal-Mart's website may be a disappointment now, but many suspect it's just the soup before the souffle--served to tide customers over while the company cooks up something better. Wal-Mart is doing what it has always done, notes DLJ analyst Gary Balter: watching, learning and biding its time before swooping in for the kill. "By no means should anyone assume that Wal-Mart's not going to be a major, major player in the longer term on the Internet," Balter says, "because it will be."

The first strike is planned for New Year's Day, when Wal-Mart has said it will launch a redesign of the site, adding photo and travel services and expanding the menu to 600,000 items (superstores typically stock about 100,000). The company also promises to link the site to its 2,485 stores in 50 states, allowing online purchases to be returned off-line. "We'll even refund the shipping charges," says Glenn Habern, Wal-Mart's Web war chief.

The changes move Wal-Mart closer to the "clicks-and-mortar" approach to e-tailing. But Balter isn't expecting a watershed event. The company will improve its online operations, he says, "at a pace it feels it needs to go at to win--and it usually wins." Wal-Mart's loyal demographic--mainstream folks, not tech geeks--will be sidling up to spanking-new, sub-$500 PCs from Santa just as the new-and-improved wal-mart.com is making its debut. So Wal-Mart just might be their ride to the party.

Mighty America Online just signed up to help pass out the punch. Last week Wal-Mart and AOL confirmed plans to launch a co-branded, low-cost Internet service by next spring. In-store kiosks will help introduce shopping at wal-mart.com--and probably the new ISP--to the yet-untapped market strolling Wal-Mart's aisles.

Wal-Mart does face some challenges. It's the leading logistics company in the world, but it is not set up for shipping directly to consumers, an essential link in the e-commerce chain. To fill the gap, Wal-Mart has contracted Books-A-Million and Fingerhut to pick, pack and ship online orders--most likely a short-term solution. The company will also have to grasp how online shoppers shop. Choosing products to splash on its home page isn't like stocking razor blades by the check-out. "This is where it's behind the learning curve," Cooperstein says, "but it will learn." And before long, it may be time to dig into that souffle. Priced at a discount, of course.

--By Maryanne Murray Buechner