Monday, Apr. 28, 2003

Fighting For Dad And Country

By Scott MacLeod/Damascus

Bashar Assad, Syria's baby-faced, blunt-spoken President, probably never imagined he would be going head to head with the U.S. over the future of the Middle East. That was more the kind of mission relished by his late father Hafez Assad, the stern military commander who ruled Syria for 30 years until his death in 2000. Bashar's humble ambition was to leave politics to others in the clan and become a doctor. In the early '90s he went to London to study ophthalmology. There he courted his wife Asma, a young banker of Syrian origin who is fluent in four languages. When the gangly young man, now 37, rose to power three years ago, many hoped that an era of modernization, freedom, perhaps even peace was at hand.

Bashar, it turns out, is his father's son after all. He is as obsessed with the Arab struggle against Israel as Hafez ever was. On Bashar's watch, Syria's military grip on neighboring Lebanon has loosened only slightly. Syria's support for violent groups like Hizballah and Hamas is unwavering. Despite his Western education, he's in no hurry to promote reforms that might threaten his regime's control. Like his father, Bashar is ready for a peace deal with Israel that wins back the Golan Heights, lost in the 1967 war, but he is holding out for a comprehensive settlement of all outstanding Arab grievances.

Hafez may have schooled his son well in Mideast topology, but it seems he skipped a few pointers for handling the U.S. Many considered Hafez a master of the double game, a man who could have American diplomats queuing up for talks even as Syria sponsored global acts of terror. Bashar began to irritate Washington within months of taking office--in early 2001 he reneged on a quiet understanding to shut down a pipeline pumping illicit oil out of Iraq.

Bashar sought to placate the Bush Administration by helping nail some al-Qaeda suspects after 9/11. But the closer the U.S. came to war in Iraq, the more Bashar played to the Arab gallery. He denounced U.S. aggression and hailed Iraq's resistance. His performance enthralled the Arab street, where demonstrators chanted, "Bashar, Bashar, set the world on fire!" But it deep-sixed Syria's relations with the U.S.

Inexperience is part of Bashar's problem. He entered politics only after his older brother Basil, Hafez's carefully groomed heir, died in a 1994 car accident. Bashar is said to be shy and self-effacing in private. He has tried to soften some of the uglier edges of Baath Party rule, closing down the notorious Mazza prison and releasing hundreds of political prisoners. Yet he bows to the influence of his father's Old Guard cronies who exert control over Syria's military and intelligence services. That thwarted his initial flirtation with greater political and economic freedom. In 2002 the regime provoked howls from human-rights groups by jailing 10 prominent political activists.

It appeared last week that Washington's threats were beginning to sink in. Bashar's Foreign Ministry reacted with relief to news that Secretary of State Colin Powell is considering a visit to Damascus. "We are trying not to escalate the situation," says Syrian spokeswoman Buthaina Shaaban. The most dangerous thing Bashar could do now is play with Iraq the game his father once played with Lebanon. Between 1982 and '84, Hafez backed Lebanese guerrilla factions until they drove out U.S. peacekeeping troops. Hafez may have won that round. But Bashar would find it hard to follow in Hafez's footsteps with the Bush Administration commanding the other side. --With reporting by George Baghdadi/Damascus

With reporting by George Baghdadi/Damascus