Successor Jitters

By Scott MacLeod and Amany Radwan

While delivering a nationally televised speech in parliament last week, Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak broke out in a sweat, coughed, staggered and slumped over as his security detail rushed forward to help him. Senior Egyptian sources confirmed to TIME that Mubarak's collapse, as the government maintains, came during a bout of flu.

But as has happened after two attempts on his life, in 1995 and 1999, the incident raised concerns about Egypt's political stability in the event of his death. Mubarak, evidently wary of creating a rival to power, has never named a Vice President. And because flaunting aspirations for the presidency while Mubarak is alive can be hazardous to one's political health, few own up to an interest in the position.

Mubarak's second eldest son Gamal, a businessman and avowed political reformer who holds a top policy post in the ruling party, provoked much speculation about his future when he entered politics three years ago. But he denies he has presidential ambitions, and his father has publicly scoffed at the notion of a hereditary succession in Egypt. More pertinent, Gamal lacks the backing of the military, which may prefer Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, Mubarak's loyal Defense Minister. Mubarak himself has lately thrust intelligence chief General Omar Suleiman into the limelight by giving him the task of negotiating an Israeli-Palestinian cease-fire. Although Suleiman keeps a low profile, he has the distinct advantage of having earned the President's gratitude: in 1995 he insisted that Mubarak ride in an armored car while in Addis Ababa--where his motorcade was attacked by Egyptian terrorists.

Mubarak, who is 75, completed his speech last week after a 45-minute break. A former fighter pilot and longtime squash player, the President is in relatively good health. But many Egyptians doubtless hope that to prevent future chaos, he will take the time to pick a suitable successor. --By Scott MacLeod and Amany Radwan