The Frenzied Finish

By James Carney

Senator John Kerry may have won all three of his debates with President George W. Bush, but according to a new TIME survey, he's having trouble converting those victories into votes. With the campaign entering its final frenzied week, Bush leads Kerry among likely voters nationwide by 51% to 46%. The President held a similar 5point edge over Kerry in a TIME poll before the first debate.

What explains Bush's advantage? For one, terrorism is tied with the economy as the issue voters say is most important to them. And when asked which candidate would best handle the war on terror, voters prefer Bush over Kerry by 19 points--56% to 37%--up from just 11 points a week ago. The President has widened his lead on all the so-called hard issues of national security: whether it's providing leadership in difficult times, preventing the spread of WMD or being Commander in Chief, voters choose Bush by double-digit margins.

On most domestic matters, Kerry's once large advantage has either eroded or disappeared. Voters favor the Democrat by just 1 point--46% to 45%--on handling the economy. On health care, a traditional Democratic issue Kerry once seemed to own, his lead has narrowed to just 4 points. Perhaps most important to Bush, 53% of voters say they approve of his overall performance on the job; traditionally, Presidents with an approval rating above 50% have gone on to win re-election.

The problem for Bush is that the race is still extremely close. In fact, other major independent polls taken last week showed the two men in a dead heat, and one gave Kerry a 3point lead. And several surveys showed Kerry outperforming Bush in the socalled battleground states--places like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida--that will really decide who takes the oath of office next January. With so much conflicting data, each side can claim momentum going into the final leg of the campaign. --By James Carney