Prediction Watch

By Julie Rawe

With a dead heat in the polls, prognosticators resorted to a host of conventional wisdoms to predict the outcome of the race. Which ones held true? --By Julie Rawe

? Americans won't unseat a wartime President. All five Chief Executives who have run for re-election during a war have won, including Bush.

A big turnout is good for the Democrats. Not this time.

If the Washington Redskins win their last home game before the election, the incumbent's party will be re-elected; if they lose, the incumbent's party will be defeated. The Redskins lost to Green Bay on Sunday. Bush thwarted the folklore--the first time since 1936.

? No Republican has ever won a presidential election without carrying Ohio. Bush scored a Buckeye win.

If the consumer-confidence index at election time is above 99, the incumbent's party remains in office; anything lower signals defeat. Since 1968, only Al Gore, who lost in 2000 despite a high consumer-confidence number, had been the exception. But the low October figure of 92.8 didn't hamper Bush.

No incumbent with a four-letter last name (Polk, Taft, Ford and Bush Sr.) has ever been re-elected. Dubya managed to break the streak.

? The winner of Family Circle's First Lady Cookie Cook-Off has wound up in the White House after every election since the poll's inception in 1992. Laura Bush's oatmeal chocolate chip won 67% of the vote this year.

John Kerry is a great closer. Close but not close enough.