Does One Case Equal a New Epidemic?

By Alice Park

Is there a new superstrain of HIV? It's too early to tell whether the virus was responsible for the New York City man's quick progression to full-blown AIDS or his immune system was particularly vulnerable to rapid decline. The fact that he was a crystal methamphetamine user may have also played a role.

Why did health officials issue an alert on the basis of one case? The man had reportedly had hundreds of recent sexual partners, and if a new strain of HIV was indeed responsible for his quick onset of AIDS, then alerting people early--and emphasizing the importance of safe sex practices--could prevent the spread of the virus.

Where did this strain come from? Because the virus is not like the strains that have been circulating in New York, scientists are tracking down the patient's recent partners, and believe that they have so far found two people, also from the New York area, who may be infected. A California testing lab that conducted a preliminary genetic analysis of its database may have identified an additional case among its samples.

Are we heading for another AIDS epidemic? Not necessarily, as long as the public heeds the wake-up call and reverts to the prevention practices that were strictly followed during the height of the AIDS crisis. Vigilance has since slackened, in part because of the successes of powerful anti-HIV medications. --By Alice Park