The First Big Race of 2006

By Perry Bacon Jr.

You would think a scandal - scarred party might be clamoring for change, but of the three candidates vying to be the next House majority leader, it's the one who stands for continuity who seems to be the favorite. "We need some new vision at the leadership table," says Kentucky Representative Anne Northup, but one question is, How new? The candidates for the old job of the indicted Tom DeLay are Roy Blunt of Missouri, the current majority whip; John Boehner of Ohio; and John Shadegg of Arizona. Blunt has positioned himself as the one who can move the G.O.P. agenda most effectively because of his leadership experience. Boehner and Shadegg have run as reformers, calling for changes like stricter restrictions on earmarks--items inserted in legislation that provide millions of dollars in funding for pet projects in members' districts.

By the end of last week, Blunt claimed the support of more than 90 members, leaving him within range of the 117 needed to win. But he has annoyed some Republicans by acting like the front runner, declaring he already has enough votes and refusing to debate his opponents on TV. In fact, the ground could quickly shift. More than 70 Republicans have not allied with any candidate, and if Blunt does not have the votes to win on the first ballot, the top two will go to a runoff. Boehner has been reaching out to backers of Shadegg, who lags in public endorsements, hoping reform-minded members will coalesce around him in a Boehner-Blunt race.

All three candidates have a few final chances to court their colleagues in the run-up to this week's election. At a Baltimore retreat, the Republican Study Committee, which includes more than 100 of the G.O.P.'s most conservative members, will ask candidates to commit to cut federal spending and push for limits on abortion and stem-cell research. The Tuesday Group--made up of 35 Republican moderates--plans to meet with the three, too, to find out what they promised the conservatives, since the moderates oppose much of that agenda. Then the entire 231-strong caucus will meet to hear speeches from supporters of each candidate--and vote.

Arizona Congressman Jeff Flake, a conservative and a Shadegg supporter, says, "It's a dynamic situation"--one made more unpredictable by the fact that the election will be by secret ballot. That means all those vote commitments may be meaningless, and anything could happen. "This is high drama," says Illinois Republican Ray LaHood. As if the G.O.P. hasn't already had enough of that.