Who Can Replace Kofi Annan?

By Adam Zagorin

News flash: "Following American Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton's suggestion that an outsider--and a woman--should be the United Nations' next Secretary-General, the predominantly male-dominated General Assembly voted unanimously for Angelina Jolie."

That nugget of fake news--on the satirical website bigfib.com--makes fun of the looming choice of a successor to U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, who steps down at year's end. If only the selection were that easy. In reality, the horsetrading and power politics involved in the search--which begins in earnest when diplomats gather this month in New York City for the 61st General Assembly--aren't much fun at all.

If you think the U.S. presidential selection process is too complicated and at times dysfunctional, get a load of the U.N.'s. The unwritten rules of the game say no candidate may come from one of the five nations with a permanent seat on the Security Council--so no American, British, French, Russian or Chinese contenders. Yet to win the Secretary-General's post, a candidate must have the backing of all five countries. The U.N. has an unofficial system of regional rotation, so it is all but certain that its next leader will come from Asia. Which brings us to another wrinkle: traditional rivalries. This time around, forget any candidate from Japan. Its tense relations with P-5 member China mean a Japanese is a very long shot.

There's more. Public campaigning isn't seen as just bad form; it can lead to disqualification. Yet individuals are free to declare their candidacy, and governments may push a nominee. Many wannabes throw their hat into the ring each time the job opens up--maybe too many, say some. Brian Urquhart, a former Under Secretary-General but never a plausible candidate for the top job because he's British, wrote in Foreign Affairs, "Unfortunately, but as usual, a crop of self- or state-nominated candidates has already come forward, discouraging ... a more serious search for the right person."

None of the candidates in a Security Council straw poll held in July--they hail from India, South Korea, Sri Lanka and Thailand--are seen as real contenders. A straw poll expected later this month should feature new and prominent names. Says a senior U.N. official: "The most important countries don't seem to like the horses in the starting gate, so they'll have to roam the paddocks looking for better material." Insiders expect Prince Zeid al-Hussein, Jordan's U.N. envoy, to declare, though handicappers note that an Arab might be viewed as insufficiently impartial, given the turmoil in the Middle East. Other possible candidates are former Malaysian Deputy P.M. Anwar Ibrahim and two contenders to be the first female Secretary-General: Singaporean Ambassador to Washington Chan Heng Chee--said to be a U.S. favorite--and New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark.

If Annan's selection a decade ago holds any clues, it could be months--tense, diplomatically bruising months--before his successor is chosen. The Ghanaian won after his predecessor, Egypt's Boutros Boutros-Ghali, met stiff U.S. opposition to a second term. France and the U.S. battled ferociously over a replacement, enduring weeks of acrimony before Paris cried uncle and agreed to Annan less than three weeks before his predecessor's term was due to end. Diplomats, it seems, work best on deadline.