Why States Want Early Primaries

By Massimo Calabresi

The Democratic and Republican parties are about to lose control of the way their presidential candidates are chosen. Both had picked a select group of states that could elect nominees before Feb. 5, 2008. But Florida, which wasn't one of them, is now set to break the party-approved barrier and move its primary up to Jan. 29. South Carolina, which the parties picked to have the first Southern primary, says it will move its G.O.P. primary even earlier to keep that distinction. New Hampshire, scheduled for Jan. 22, requires its secretary of state to move its primary to stay at least a week ahead of the pack. Iowa, always the first caucus, would follow suit. That means Americans could be voting for their putative President as early as this December--or before, if other states follow Florida's lead.

Democrats brought this on themselves. Last July they added Nevada and South Carolina to the pre--Feb. 5 balloting in hopes of mixing Western and Southern diversity into the plain-vanilla tradition of Iowa and New Hampshire. Big states like California and New York had always felt they weren't getting the respect--or campaign promises--they deserved from candidates, and when they saw the shuffle of dates begin, they moved their primaries to Feb. 5. At last count, more than 25 states were considering voting on or before then.

The parties are trying to push back. The Republican and Democratic National Committees say they will cut by half the number of delegates to the national convention of any state that votes before Feb. 5. Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean has gone further, threatening to bar all delegates of candidates who campaign in rule-breaking states. Few believe the threats. Once chosen, the candidates control the conventions, and none will want to offend key swing states like Florida and New Hampshire. So no one can say where the rush to be first will stop. Some reform ideas are on the table, including rotating first-in-the-nation honors and grouping primaries by region, but there's little political will to make them happen. "We've got pretty much anarchy," says Norman Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute.