Putin's Power Play

By Nathan Thornburgh

Every democracy holds elections, but not every country that holds elections is a true democracy. Case in point: Russia. President Vladimir Putin announced on Oct. 1 that he would lead the United Russia party in December's parliamentary elections. The move is designed to keep him in power although he is constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term as President. By leading his party at the polls, he can become Prime Minister instead. He has already all but ensured victory by blocking some opposition parties from running and by using state-controlled TV to boost United Russia. As Prime Minister, Putin would be less powerful than the next President--unless that job goes to a political weakling. And there are strong signs that Putin has found just the man in Viktor Zubkov, a pliant apparatchik whom Putin appointed Prime Minister in September. If he backs Zubkov for President, that would leave Putin with undiminished control over Russia.

His countrymen may not mind: Putin's approval ratings run above 70%. But there are some things he cannot control--the international market for oil and natural gas, for instance. High prices have kept Russia's economy stable despite Putin's throttling of foreign investment and domestic small businesses. His bravado on the international stage, a key to his popularity at home, depends on Moscow's ability to project power, using natural gas and oil as its weapons. If that arsenal fails him because of worldwide price drops, it won't matter what his title is after the election. Putin could still join Boris Yeltsin and Mikhail Gorbachev as Russian leaders remembered most for the opportunities they wasted.