Why They Love Huckabee

By David Von Drehle

Once upon a time, a little-known Southern Governor charmed Iowa voters with his frank expressions of Baptist faith and a pledge to tell the truth no matter what. And that's how Jimmy Carter became President of the United States. It's a story Mike Huckabee knows well. He likes it much better than the one about televangelist Pat Robertson's strong showing in Iowa, which melted away faster than a Tulsa ice storm when the contest went national. The Iowa caucuses almost always produce an interesting tale, but interesting doesn't translate into lasting significance. As Huckabee, a former Baptist preacher and Governor of Arkansas, surges to the front of the Republican field here, the question looms: Which storybook ending lies ahead? Is he Carter or Robertson?

This much is certain: no candidate in either party has done more with less this year. Lacking Mitt Romney's money, Rudy Giuliani's name recognition and John McCain's chest full of medals, Huckabee has leveraged his opportunities like Archimedes on a good day. His steady, good-humored performances in televised debates gradually lifted him out of the second tier and helped smother his main rival for evangelical affections, Sam Brownback of Kansas. Meanwhile, Huckabee has never lost sight of the core fact of the Iowa caucuses: turnout is minuscule. Because of inconvenient scheduling (on a school night and opposite the Orange Bowl this year) and arcane rules for voting, candidates can look like giant killers here with about as many votes as it takes to be elected to the Fresno school board. In this dreamland of the unknown and underfunded, Huckabee has built his following 10 and 20 voters at a time.

Here's an example. Rudy Carey, a dedicated Des Moines Republican, says his wife was so disappointed in George W. Bush that she had intended to sit out this campaign, until he coaxed her into hearing Huckabee in a living room last spring. "When it was time to leave, I found her sitting on the stairs, filling out a commitment card"--and the Careys have been solidly for Huckabee ever since. What swayed them? "He's honest," Carey says. It's the answer you hear everywhere that Huckabee supporters gather.

By August, the dark horse had enough support to generate 2,587 votes at the Ames straw poll, a fund-raising fandango for the Iowa GOP at which candidates pay to have their supporters attend. Huckabee finished a distant second behind free-spending Romney, while Giuliani and McCain skipped the event entirely. But veteran pols noted that Huckabee's tally exceeded the number of tickets he bought--speculating that people were taking Romney's freebies but casting their ballots for Huckabee.

Layering one small success on the next, Huckabee made an Internet sensation out of his endorsement by TV tough guy Chuck Norris. Then Huckabee's speech to a gathering of social conservatives in Washington was a grand slam over the right-field fence. After a year of hard work, he woke up an overnight sensation in the polls. An audience in Newton, Iowa, this week numbered closer to 200 than two dozen, and Huckabee's words were being recorded by journalists from Britain, Ireland and Spain. "I'm a pretty happy guy," he told the gathering.

So far, so good. With his from-modest-roots biography, his conservative positions on abortion, guns and gay marriage, and his deep Arkansas knowledge of Clinton-style politics, Huckabee "has earned his support" among the stop-Hillary Evangelicals who form the backbone of Iowa Republicanism, in the words of veteran strategist Ed Rogers. "But he hasn't had any live ammo fired at him yet," Rogers continues. "That's about to change."

No kidding. Huckabee's new prominence revived the wrenching story of Carol Sue Shields, a Missouri woman raped and murdered in 2000 by a former Arkansas inmate, Wayne Dumond. He died in prison before being charged with the murder of a second Missouri woman, Sara Andrasek. As Governor, Huckabee supported Dumond's parole. Other lowlights of Huckabee's generally successful tenure have also begun to circulate--including the wedding registry that was created to help friends shower him with parting gifts at the end of his fourth term.

Huckabee's first few hours in the big time weren't exactly reassuring. When a man in Newton asked him about Dumond, Huckabee answered with an airy discourse on corrections policy that left the misleading impression that Dumond's parole was the Arkansas legislature's idea. That's not likely to cut it once voters hear from Shields' mother, Lois Davidson, who told ABCNews.com this week that she will do "whatever it takes" to keep Huckabee out of the White House. Nor did his under-populated, overwhelmed staff do Huckabee any favors. At a dinner with reporters on Tuesday night, it became apparent that no one had briefed the candidate on the biggest story of the day: the blockbuster intelligence estimate of Iran's fading nuclear ambitions.

Huckabee's lack of money--Romney has outspent him in Iowa by about 20 to 1--hasn't hurt him yet, but he will need millions if he hopes to keep going. So he is devoting precious days to raising cash outside Iowa, making it harder to win converts on the prairie. It is the old flaw in the Iowa breakout strategy: How can anyone survive the abrupt transformation from guerrilla to gorilla? One day you're the Lone Ranger; the next, you're in the middle of the Battle of the Bulge. Unless you can morph into Patton and conjure up the Third Army double-quick, you're fixing to die in the snow. Indeed, no Republican in modern politics has ever converted an insurgency into a nomination. If Huckabee does, it will be because for the first time in many years, the GOP has no real front runner. The party has yet to rally around Romney, despite his deep pockets and strong organization. Giuliani is out of step with religious conservatives and dogged by indicted friends, estranged children, reputed lovers and former wives. McCain has a habit of chastising his allies, and Fred Thompson has dropped like a lawn full of leaves.

Former South Carolina Governor David Beasley built the fire walls that saved front runners Bob Dole and George W. Bush from insurgencies past. This year he's helping organize Huckabee's effort in what could be the make-or-break primary. Everything's ready; all he needs now is money. "He's perfectly positioned," Beasley said, as Huckabee's wave rose up north in Iowa. "The lack of performance by some other candidates, coupled with his extraordinary performance, has made Mike Huckabee viable."