Strange Peace

By Michael Grunwald

The presidential candidates all talk about the need for change as if George W. Bush were a flat tire or a dirty diaper, but his Middle East trip last week was a reminder that he's still the Commander in Chief, that the lame duck has one more year to quack.

Bush clung to his ambitious vision of peace and democracy in the Persian Gulf while assuaging the House of Saud with a $20 billion arms deal. He reaffirmed his devotion to the Iraq war and sent Condoleezza Rice on another "unannounced visit" to Baghdad--as if she could make any other kind. And he issued more warnings to Iran after U.S. warships were threatened in the Strait of Hormuz. "They'd better be careful and not be provocative," Bush said.

So much for careful versus provocative. The menacing audio in the naval incident apparently came not from Iranian boats but from a radio heckler known as the Filipino Monkey--one or more pranksters who have been jabbering over the Persian Gulf maritime channels for decades and who nearly became the first nobodies to start a world war since 19-year-old Gavrilo Princip shot Archduke Ferdinand in 1914. Critics said the standoff in the strait illustrated how a single provocateur can exploit global tensions and spark an international crisis. And they weren't thinking of the Filipino Monkey.

After all, this wasn't the first time Bush had jumped to a wrong conclusion in the Middle East. Now his coalition of the willing is dwindling, oil prices are soaring, and the Arab street is angrier than ever. Bush's approval ratings are lower than Osama bin Laden's in Saudi Arabia.

But Bush remains determined to transform the Middle East, where the success of his presidency will be judged by history. That means holding tough in Iraq, whose Defense Minister now says U.S. troops will be needed until 2018, and staying tough with Iran. The CIA has downplayed the Iranian threat, but Bush pointedly distanced himself from that assessment in Abu Dhabi, calling on the world to "confront this danger before it's too late."

By Bush's calendar, that means before 2009. Because change is on the way.