The Kosovo Test

By Michael Grunwald

It's hard to keep track of the Balkans, with all those disputed borders, ethnic hatreds and separatist movements. But the Feb. 17 declaration of independence by Kosovo--an impoverished province smaller than Connecticut--has become a global Rorschach test.

The bipolar reaction to Kosovo's break from Serbia had a bit of a cold war feel. President George W. Bush declared a victory for freedom and most of the West recognized the new nation, while Russia exploded in outrage and China expressed "grave concern." But this wasn't a new clash of civilizations. Russia and China were just rejecting the legitimacy of independence movements before anyone got ideas about Chechnya or Taiwan.

The modern world isn't divided between capitalism and communism; it's divided in part between nations done dealing with their secessionists and those still fighting. Sri Lanka sided with Serbia, mindful of its Tamil rebels. Even Spain opposed Kosovo's claim as a precedent that could threaten Madrid's sovereignty by encouraging separatists. What's the joke about putting all your Basques in one exit?

Still, Kosovo is no joke because instability in the Balkans tends to spread. It triggered World War I, not to mention a few smaller conflicts in the 1990s. The Kosovo war was a big deal in 1999, when President Bill Clinton instigated a NATO bombing campaign to defend Kosovo's Albanian Muslims and defuse a refugee crisis. Tom DeLay, then the House majority whip, accused Clinton of embroiling the U.S. in a "quagmire," of "involving the U.S. military in a civil war in a sovereign nation." But that wouldn't happen to America for another four years. No, the Kosovo intervention seemed to turn out pretty well at the time. Most of the province's exiled Muslims returned home. But most of its Serbs promptly fled. And now the Serbs left behind are lashing out against their new overlords, while the 17,000 NATO peacekeepers who are still there are struggling to quell more instability.

The world, once again, is taking sides. There's a reason they call it "Balkanization."