Building Bridges, Not Fences

By Ramesh Ponnuru

Americans may be divided on immigration, but the presidential candidates are not that far apart. Senators John McCain, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama all favor a deal that would combine increased enforcement of laws against illegal immigration, a guest-worker program to help businesses and a process for allowing illegal immigrants who meet certain conditions to become legal residents. So you might think immigration won't be an issue in this fall's races.

House Republicans are hoping otherwise. So far, 174 of them have signed a petition demanding a vote on the SAVE (Secure America Through Verification and Enforcement) Act, which would crack down on illegal immigration without enacting other reforms. Democratic leaders do not want to hold a vote on the legislation, which is opposed by Hispanic, liberal and business groups. But if the bill's 49 Democratic co-sponsors sign the petition, the leadership will have to allow a vote. Congressional Republicans are trying to force conservative and moderate Democrats to choose between bucking Nancy Pelosi and breaking their pledges to get tough on illegal immigration.

Some in the GOP think this effort is a mistake. Hispanics increasingly favored Republicans in the past two presidential elections, and many party strategists worry that a strict emphasis on enforcing immigration laws will alienate this growing group of voters. They believe that a hard line has already cost the party two congressional seats in Arizona.

McCain, who represents that state, falls into this camp. The unpopularity of his more moderate immigration stance among conservatives was one reason his campaign nearly died last year. But McCain's position also aided his revival. In Florida, Mitt Romney ran to his right on the issue. White Republicans split their votes, but Hispanic Republicans went 5 to 1 for McCain, who thus captured the state and subsequently the nomination.

McCain says comprehensive immigration reform failed because the public didn't trust Washington to enforce the laws. People assumed that existing illegal immigrants would be legalized while new ones continued to stream in. So now McCain pledges that nobody will get legal status until border-state governors certify that illegal crossings are under control. It is a weak promise. Because nearly half of illegal immigrants came here legally and then overstayed their visas, "border control" does little to actually slow the growth of the illegal population.

Still, McCain has at least signaled a willingness to address his critics' legitimate concerns. His colleagues on the other side of the immigration debate aren't budging. They worry, reasonably, that it is hard to assimilate 1.5 million newcomers each year, especially when the vast majority of them are poor people from one country (Mexico) that shares a long border with us. But they have not found a way to raise these questions without sounding hostile to illegal immigrants or, worse, to Hispanics in general. Making the SAVE Act the beginning and end of GOP immigration policy would worsen that problem.

It is possible to imagine immigration policies that could command broad support, including from a significant number of conservatives and Hispanics. The GOP could stand for increased enforcement but also hold open the possibility of regularizing illegal immigrants who have been here a long time. Or Republicans could combine enforcement with steps to improve conditions for legal immigrants--or draw distinctions among illegal immigrants, prioritizing the deportation of those who are felons.

A smarter approach to immigration wouldn't necessarily be enough to shore up Hispanic support for the GOP. Republicans of McCain's stripe believe the social conservatism of many Hispanics makes them natural Republicans, so long as the party does not offend them on immigration. This view oversimplifies Hispanics' political decisions: they tend to favor the Democrats on economic issues. Without domestic policies that are attractive to working-class Americans of all ethnicities, the GOP is unlikely to win lasting majorities among Hispanic voters.

The sponsor of the SAVE Act says McCain is fighting the effort behind the scenes. McCain denies it, but he is in a tough spot. If he repudiates the bill, he will look soft on enforcement, infuriating conservatives and alienating some working-class white swing voters. But if Republicans become identified with an enforcement-only policy, McCain will cede a lot of Hispanic votes and business support to the Democrats. His best option is to tell the truth: the SAVE Act isn't so much wrong as it is incomplete. Republicans have to offer Hispanics more than a fence.