Tell Me How This Ends?

By Karen Tumulty

So how will it end? No one really knows. Ever since a small group of Democratic operatives enshrined the proportional allocation of primary delegates in its party rules 20 years ago, the possibility of a months-long death march to the convention has both reflected the Democrats' proudest egalitarian instinct -- and hidden the germ of their worst nightmare. That latter possibility has now arrived. There is no road map for where the Democrats are going; there aren't even many roads. The candidates and their aides have only a dim grasp of how the endgame will unfold, though some maintain a healthy sense of humor about their predicament. David Axelrod, Barack Obama's top strategist, donned a shirt on the plane out of Pennsylvania that read STOP THE DRAMA, VOTE OBAMA.

But the drama is a long way from over. Sources at both campaigns and anxious Democrats elsewhere say they see three possible scenarios that could bring the contest to a close:

1. Clinton Loses Indiana on May 6 and Pulls Out There will be two primaries that day, but North Carolina is considered almost certain to go for Obama, which means Clinton will be putting most of her effort into Indiana. Privately, her advisers concede that it will be difficult to continue in the race if she does not win there.

Clinton starts out with some big handicaps. The most crippling is lack of money. The latest fund-raising reports show she was more than $10 million in debt going into April, mostly to her high-priced campaign consultants, and local vendors are starting to complain about unpaid bills. And all that red ink was booked before the expensive sprint through Pennsylvania. It was telling that Clinton opened her Philadelphia victory speech with a fund-raising pitch; more than $5 million poured into her coffers by noon the next day. But she is not likely to keep up that pace. "Watch the money more than anything else," says a top Obama campaign official.

Obama, on the other hand, sits atop an Internet fund-raising machine unlike any either party has ever seen. He has been raising more than $1 million a day for several months now, with more than a third coming in small amounts from people who can give again. He also has some home-court advantages: up to 30% of Indiana's Democratic voters live in the Chicago media market. The heavily African-American city of East Chicago is actually in Indiana.

But Clinton has some friends in Indiana too. She has the support of the biggest name in Indiana Democratic politics, Senator (and former governor) Evan Bayh. Congressional sources say pressure from Bayh is the main reason that four of the five Indiana House Democrats -- all of them superdelegates -- have remained uncommitted in the race. While the Clinton campaign's internal polling shows Obama ahead, two sources say, she is beginning to close the gap. Working-class whites, who accounted for her victories in Ohio and Pennsylvania, number high among the undecided in Indiana. She also runs stronger with conservatives, which helps in a state that hasn't voted Democratic in a presidential race since 1964. If Clinton manages to stage a comeback in the Hoosier State, she is almost certain to continue in the race until the remaining six states have finished voting. At that point:

2. Party Leaders End It in June Worried democrats have been talking for weeks about the possibility of party elders conspiring to bring things to a close in May. But in a group as leaderless as the Democratic Party, it is far from clear who actually has the clout to play that role, especially while there are states that have yet to vote. Al Gore, assumed to favor Obama, has resisted those who have entreated him to make a public move, telling them privately, "Nobody likes an umpire."

All that could change after the last two states, South Dakota and Montana, vote on June 3. That's the time party chairman Howard Dean, Senate majority leader Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi are expected to tell the superdelegates -- about 300 of the roughly 800 delegates overall who have yet to commit -- that it is time to make up their minds. Pelosi in particular is key, as more than 70 of those uncommitted superdelegates are House members. For many, holding back now is more a matter of principle than preference. "They don't want to be perceived as telling voters how to vote," says former Senate majority leader Tom Daschle, who is heading Obama's superdelegate effort.

Not since the nasty 1984 primary race between party-establishment favorite Walter Mondale and the insurgent Gary Hart has the nomination come down to the superdelegates, who also include governors, Senators and party officials. In that race, virtually all the elders got in line behind Mondale, the party's legatee. But Obama has been steadily chipping away at Clinton's once formidable lead among the superdelegates; the assumption, at least for now, is that most of those who remain would move to put Obama over the top if he emerges from the primary season with the most pledged delegates. To do otherwise would be to risk alienating the legions of new voters who, thanks largely to Obama, are participating in elections for the first time. Clinton's best hope for countering that argument would be to pull even or ahead in the popular vote.

The Clinton team also notes that the superdelegates were established in the 1980s, in the wake of successive electoral debacles, to assure that the party nominated its strongest general-election contender. If Clinton performs well in such upcoming primaries as West Virginia and Kentucky, her team argues, that will increase doubts about Obama's durability in the fall (though it has been 12 years since both states voted for a Democrat in a general election). They also hope Clinton will finish close enough to Obama to bring into the calculation the still disqualified votes of Florida and Michigan -- two states that moved up their primary dates in violation of party rules and subsequently lost their delegates as a result. Should it reach a point at which the fate of those delegates would determine the outcome, that would pave the way for the scenario Democrats fear most:

3. A Fight All the Way to Denver Resolving the unfinished business of how and whether to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates could make the recent sniping between Obama and Clinton seem like back-fence chitchat. Florida's situation should be the easier of the two, because both candidates were on the ballot there and turnout was high. Michigan is another story, because Obama's name didn't appear on the ballot. Clinton's team is saying she won't agree to any resolution in either state that would dilute her delegate totals, a position that could lead to a summerlong brawl if her team sticks with it to the end.

That would mean that for the first time since 1972, the party could open its national convention without a nominee-designate. Right now the fate of the Florida and Michigan delegations rests with the party's rules and bylaws committee, a group of fewer than 100 party regulars who are trying to work out a resolution. But if they don't find one before June 29, the matter moves to the credentials committee, which is nearly twice as big and even more political -- and over which Howard Dean will hold relatively little power. Imagine that: after a year of record-shattering turnout, the party's nominee could be chosen in a smoke-filled room -- in July. If it comes to that, at least one person will be smiling: John McCain.