“In fact, from the micro point of view, following the dynamical rules of the TvL model, a talented individual has a greater a priori probability to reach a high level of success than a moderately gifted one, since she has a greater ability to grasp any opportunity will come. Of course, luck has to help her in yielding those opportunities. Therefore, from the point of view of a single individual, we should therefore conclude that, being impossible (by definition) to control the occurrence of lucky events, the best strategy to increase the probability of success (at any talent level) is to broaden the personal activity, the production of ideas, the communication with other people, seeking for diversity and mutual enrichment. In other words, to be an open-minded person, ready to be in contact with others, exposes to the highest probability of lucky events (to be exploited by means of the personal talent).
On the other hand, from the macro point of view of the entire society, the probability to find moderately gifted individuals at the top levels of success is greater than that of finding there very talented ones, because moderately gifted people are much more numerous and, with the help of luck, have – globally – a statistical advantage to reach a great success, in spite of their lower individual a priori probability.”
显然，天分高要比天分低整体上有优势，但却只是成功的必要条件，能抓住和利用机会，机会偏爱有准备的人。但天分不是充分条件，真正的幸运者大多不是天分很高的人。古人说：天时地利人和，天时>地利>人和，人算不如天算啊！如果把运气看作是缘起，那智力、能力、决心、勤奋这些所谓天分的品质，又何尝不可以认为是缘起的运气。正所谓：天地无私，损有余以补不足吧。可以看我之前的几篇：别把奋斗太当回事儿（2013） 五十知天命（2020） 人生由命（2022）